[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
201 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 13N
southward, moving 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong from 08N to 10N between 33W and 38W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 13N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong in the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave that was along 74W/75W from 15N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
no significant deep convective precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/86W, from 18N
southward across Honduras and Nicaragua, moving westward 10
knots. Convective precipitation: numerous strong in the SW corner
of Nicaragua at its border with Costa Rica.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N14W, curving to 06N18W 05N26W and 06N30W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N30W to 08N40W 04N52W in French Guiana.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong within 90
nm on either side of 04N10W 09N17W, and from 04N to 07N between
23W and 27W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
02N to 06N between 16W and 21W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 53W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, thanks
to a trough that cuts through the U.S.A. just to the east of the
Mississippi River, into the central sections of the Gulf of
Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water
vapor imagery, to the NW and N of the line that passes through
30N81W 23N87W 25N97W. Multilayered clouds and lingering/weakening
precipitation are in the areas that are to the S and SE of the
30N81W 25N97W line. A cold front passes through the Florida Big
Bend, into the central Gulf of Mexico, toward 21N97W at the coast
of Mexico. A surface trough is along 25N86W 22N89W 19N90W in the
southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FLORIDA: light rain in the Panama City metropolitan area. Moderate
rain in Brooksville. MVFR at the Tampa Executive Airport, and in
Sarasota.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the Mona Passage, to just to
the south of Hispaniola, to 15N74W. A shear line continues from
15N74W to Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 19N southward between 73W and 84W.

Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 14N to
20N between 87W and 100W, from Honduras to southern Mexico. Widely
scattered moderate in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from
Honduras to 20N from 83W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N80W in Panama, beyond NW Costa
Rica. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
between 82W and the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua from 10N to
12N. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N southward from 76W
westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level W-to-NW wind flow is moving across the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo
Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR.
Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
continue across Hispaniola for the next 48 hours. The earlier
trough has moved to the east of Hispaniola, bringing with it the
NW wind flow on the western side. A ridge will bring more NW wind
flow to Hispaniola during day two. The ridge will flatten out a
bit, gradually, during day two, and still bringing NW wind flow to
the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that an
anticyclonic circulation center will be on top of Hispaniola for
the first 18 hours or so of the overall 48-hour forecast period.
The anticyclonic circulation center will move westward, bring NE
wind flow to Hispaniola for the rest of the time. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation center
will be to the NE of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour
forecast period. Expect SE wind flow for the first 18 hours or
so. The anticyclonic circulation center is forecast to move
northward, and then become stretched out/elongated as a ridge,
along a NE-to-SW oriented line. Expect NE wind flow across
Hispaniola for the rest of the forecast period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through the
area that is just to the west of the Madeira Archipelago, to
20N40W and to 13N50W. The trough supports a cold front that
passes through 32N23W to 28N30W 26N36W and 21N43W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on either
side of the line that passes through 32N22W 28N30W 27N36W 20N50W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N44W, to 29N58W, to 24N71W, across Cuba, to 21N82W in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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