[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241704
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with an axis
extending from 12N34W to 03N35W, moving westward at around 20 kt.
This wave is embedded in a broad 700 mb trough with TPW data
indicating a surge of moisture both northward and southward with
the wave passage. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N
between 33W and 37W.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with an axis
extending from 11N44W to 03N45W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
This wave is at the leading edge of a surge in low to mid level
moisture, and has had a notable cyclonic curvature in satellite
imagery the past two days. Isolated moderate convection is from
05N to 11N within 180 nm east of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends from the south central Caribbean to S
America with an axis from near 15N71W to east Venezuela, to west
Colombia. This wave has been trackable utilizing infrared
satellite convection patterns over S America the past two days.
However, due to dry air and subsidence over the Caribbean, no
convection is currently occurring over the discussion waters
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave over the west Caribbean with an axis extending
from 18N82W to 10N83W, moving westward at around 10 kt. This wave
has been slowing its forward progression the past couple of days,
and is expected to become disrupted over central America through
tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are S of 13N, west of 80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 10N14W and
continues to 06N22W. The ITCZ begins near 06N22W and extends to
07N33W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N36W to
06N43W, then resumes again west of another tropical wave near
05N46W to 05N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N
between 15W and 22W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm
of the ITCZ axis between 22W and 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 30N89W to 27N92W to the Mexico coast
near 24N98W. A pair of pre-frontal troughs extend from 31N86W to
25N92W, and from 24N95W to 20N97W. Fresh northwest winds are
northwest of the front. Moderate northwest winds are between the
cold front and pre-frontal troughs. Numerous moderate convection
with thunderstorms are within 210 nm southeast of the pre-frontal
troughs. Fresh to strong southwest winds are over the northeast
Gulf east of the pre-frontal trough. Fresh southerly winds are
elsewhere over the southern Gulf. The cold front will move across
north Florida tonight and reach from central Florida to the
southeast Gulf Thursday morning. The pre-frontal trough will
continue east of the front supporting numerous showers and
thunderstorms well ahead of the front through tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pair of tropical waves are over the Caribbean. Please refer to
the tropical waves section for more details. The combination of
the eastern Pacific monsoon trough and the westernmost tropical
wave support thunderstorms over the extreme southwest Caribbean.
Otherwise, the Caribbean is void of convection. High pressure over
the central Atlantic has a ridge axis that extends west-
southwest across the far northern Caribbean supporting fresh to
strong east to southeast winds over the central Caribbean and
moderate to fresh east to southeast winds elsewhere. Over the next
24 hours a cold front will move over the southeast Gulf of
Mexico. Although this front is not expected to reach the northwest
Caribbean, showers and thunderstorms well ahead of the front may
enter the northwest Caribbean tonight and linger through Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Dry air and high pressure are supporting tranquil conditions over
the area today. Expect this pattern to continue through at least
Thursday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front and pre-frontal trough well west of northern Florida
is supporting numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms north
of 29N, west of 75W with southwest winds of around 20 kt over this
same area. A 1025 mb high centered near 33N48W currently
dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic and central
Atlantic west of 50W with fair weather. A cold front enters the
area of discussion near 31N28W and extends to 27N34W, where it
transitions to a stationary front to 25N40W to 22N46W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm west of the cold front, and within 90 nm
of either side of the stationary front. A 1022 mb area of high
pressure centered near 27N29W covers the remainder of the eastern
Atlantic north of 20N with fair weather. Two tropical waves are
over the tropical north Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical
waves section for more details. Over the next 24 hours, winds will
increase to near gale force east of north Florida ahead of the
cold front. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will spread over
the waters east of Florida, including the northwest Bahamas
through tonight. The cold front will reach the waters offshore
north Florida Thursday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
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