[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N to 08N
between 30W and 32W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave that was along 58W/59W at 24/0000
UTC, has been re-located in order to be along 65W from 14N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. This position agrees with the
TPW data and recent satellite imagery. Convective precipitation:
warming cloud top temperatures and weakening precipitation in
Venezuela from 07N to the coast between 66W and the border with
Colombia.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, near the western
part of Jamaica, from 18N southward into Panama, moving westward
10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: nothing significant. The
wave is moving through an area of upper level SW wind flow, and
toward an upper level trough.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, curving to 06N20W and 06N29W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N29W to 06N40W 05N49W 06N56W. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong from 05N to 07N between 40W and 44W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong within 120 nm on either side
of 04N at the Prime Meridian, 04N18W 07N32W 07N44W 06N54W 09N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the northern half of
the Gulf of Mexico. A deep layer trough is inland, in the central
U.S.A. The trough supports a stationary front, that curves from
the border of Mississippi and Alabama, into the NW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of the deep south of Texas. A cold
front is in the coastal waters of Texas. A surface trough is
along 93W/94W from 26N southward to the northern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Convective precipitation: scattered strong
within 90 nm on either side of the line 29N86W 25N94W 21N100W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the southern half of the
Gulf of Mexico.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KVOA.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KXIH, KVBS, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, and KVQT.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOUISIANA: MVFR in parts of the SW corner of the state, and in
Baton Rouge. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in Natchez and in parts of
Hattiesburg. ALABAMA: LIFR in Evergreen; IFR in Fort Rucker and
Dothan. FLORIDA: light rain in Milton. MVFR in Mary Esther.
MVFR in the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area, and in
Sarasota.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the Windward Passage, to
16N75W, toward SE Nicaragua. Upper level SW wind flow covers the
rest of the Caribbean Sea to the east of the trough. Convective
precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea within 500 nm to the
E and SE of the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 09N80W in Panama, beyond NW Costa
Rica. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
between 82W and the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua from 10N to
12N. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N southward from 76W
westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR.
for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and
Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. dust. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
continue across Hispaniola for the next 6 hours to 12 hours, in
advance of the trough that is just to the west of the area. The
trough will move across Hispaniola, bringing cyclonic wind flow
for 12 hours or so. The rest of the 48-hour forecast will consist
of NW wind flow, as a ridge moves across the area. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation center
will be to the NE of Hispaniola during the first 30 hours of the
48-hour forecast period. Expect southerly wind flow during that
time period. The anticyclonic circulation center is forecast to
pass on top of Hispaniola for about 6 hours or so, as it moves
westward and away from Hispaniola. Expect N wind flow as the
anticyclonic circulation center ends up to the west of Hispaniola
by the end of the forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700
mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation center will be to the NW
of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect
SW wind flow for the first 36 hours or so. The anticyclonic
circulation center is forecast to move to a position that will be
to the north of Hispaniola, at the end of the forecast period,
bringing with it E-to-NE wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N33W
to a 24N41W cyclonic circulation center, to 19N45W. The trough
supports a cold front that passes through 32N31W and 23N46W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on
either side of the line that passes through 32N29W 26N40W 23N45W
23N51W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N22W to a 1020 mb high pressure
center that is near 28N27W, to 20N46W. Surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean that is to the west and northwest
of the cold front, from 17N northward between 49W and 80W. A 1024
mb high pressure center is near 34N51W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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