[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231110
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
710 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. The area of cyclonic wind
flow that is associated with this wave ranges between 19W and 23W,
and the wave was placed in the middle of this range. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 06N to 08N between 20W and
25W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave, that was along 39W/40W at 23/0000
UTC, was re-positioned in order to be along 55W/56W from 12N
southward. The new position fit the Total Precipitable Water
imagery, and the Diagnostics forecast data. Convective
precipitation: any nearby precipitation is part of the ITCZ
precipitation. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
07N to 09N between 49W and 55W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 13N southward
into Colombia, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: nothing significant. The wave is moving through an
area of upper level SW wind flow.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N17W and curving to 08N21W and 06N28W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N28W to 05N38W and 05N44W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to widely scattered moderate and
locally strong from 10N southward from 60W eastward, mostly within
60 nm on either side of 09N55W 07N35W 04N18W 05N01W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level NW wind flow spans the area. This NW wind flow is on
the northwestern side of the NW Caribbean Sea trough. A stationary
front is in the coastal waters/coastal plains between the Florida
Pensacola to the Deep South of Texas. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 27N northward from 92W eastward to Florida.

...VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

KVQT: 1 to 2 and mist.

KHHV: 2 to 3 and mist.

KVAF, KGUL, KGBK, KEIR, and KGRY: 3 to 5 and mist.

KSPR: 2 to 3 and haze.

VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: rainshowers with thunder and some 3 to 4 miles in the Lower
Valley. 3 miles and mist in Jasper. LOUISIANA: earlier heavy rain
in the Lake Charles metropolitan area has ended for the moment.
some light rain and drizzle around Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI:
rainshowers with thunder, and other areas of light rain, from
Natchez to the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. ALABAMA: light rain
in the southernmost parts of the state. rain in Mobile and Fort
Rucker. FLORIDA: light rain from Tallahassee westward. Cross City:
3 to 5 and mist.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from Cuba to eastern sections of
Honduras/NE Nicaragua. Upper level SW and W wind flow covers the
rest of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the
Caribbean Sea within 600 nm to the E and SE of the line that runs
from SE Cuba toward NE Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 08N70W in NW Venezuela, across Colombia
and Panama, beyond 10N86W near the western sections of Costa Rica.
Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous from 11N southward
to land,between 76W and 78W, reaching the Gulf of Uraba of
Colombia at times. Other isolated moderate to locally strong from
13N southward from 76W westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW and W wind flow moves across the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR.
for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and
Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one of the
48-hour forecast will start with a central Cuba-to-eastern
Honduras/NE Nicaragua trough, and SW and W wind flow moving across
Hispaniola. The trough will move to Hispaniola by the end of day
one, bringing cyclonic wind flow to the area. The trough will move
across and away from Hispaniola during and by the end of day two.
Expect NW wind flow during and by the end of day two. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation
center will be to the south of Hispaniola at the beginning of day
one. SW wind flow will be present for the first 6 hours to 12
hours, followed by anticyclonic wind flow during the rest of day
one. Expect anticyclonic wind flow during the first 12 hours to 18
hours of day two. Expect E to SE winds during the rest of day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that Hispaniola will
be on the western end of an Atlantic Ocean-to- Hispaniola east-to-
west oriented ridge. Expect southerly wind flow during the first
12 hours or so, followed by SE wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N39W
to 25N47W and 20N50W and 17N54W. The trough supports a cold front
that passes through 32N36W to 27N54W and 31N64W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 23N northward
between 30W and 80W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N22W to a 1020 mb high pressure
center that is near 29N29W, to 22N42W 23N58W, to a 1021 mb high
pressure center that is near 30N64W. Surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward to the area of
the cold front, between Africa and 80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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