[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, listed on
the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas
of AGADIR and CANARIAS. The Outlook for the next 24 hours consists
of the persistence of these conditions in the areas of MADEIRA,
AGADIR, CANARIAS, and TARFAYA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 09N36W to 00N36W, moving
west at around 10 kt. Abundant moisture prevails in this wave's
environment as noted in TPW imagery. Despite this, only a few
showers are observed along this wave at this time.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 09N56W to 01N57W, moving
westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection prevails
within this wave affecting Guyana and adjacent southern Caribbean
waters.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 13N75W to 04N74W, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are observed within this
wave affection portions of northern Colombia and adjacent
Caribbean waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 14N17W to 09N21W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 05N35W, then continues west of a
tropical wave near 04N39W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed along the ITCZ between 29W-34W and between 41W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper-level northerly flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. At the
surface, a ridge extends along 27N anchored across the western
Atlantic near 33N69W. Lower pressures prevail across Mexico and
the far west Gulf waters. The pressure gradient generated by these
pressure tendencies is supporting moderate to fresh southerly
winds across the northwest Gulf mainly north of 24N west of 92W.
Little change is expected during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the southern portion of the
basin. Please refer to the section above for details. A deep-
layer surface trough extends its axis across the western Caribbean
and western Atlantic. A surface trough 21N79W to 14N82W. A
persistent diffluent flow prevails to the east of these troughs
supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms north
of 15N between 71W-79W. This activity has been very persistent
during the past 24 hours over portions of eastern Jamaica, western
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. More rainfall is expected today,
possibly causing flooding and mudslides. Please pay attention to
advisories and bulletins from local meteorology offices and other
governmental agencies. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades
across the far west and far east portions of the basin while fresh
to strong easterlies prevail between 70W- 78W. A similar weather
pattern is expected during the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper-level diffluence aloft prevails across the island supporting
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms north of 15N
between 71W-79W. This activity has been very persistent
during the past 24 hours over portions of western Hispaniola.
More rainfall is expected to continue through the next 24 hours,
possibly causing flooding and mudslides. Please pay attention to
advisories and bulletins from local meteorology offices and other
governmental agencies.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mbsurface high is centered near 33N69W. Its associated
ridge extends across the western Atlantic. To the east, a
weakening cold front extends from 31N55W to 26N66W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails along and east of the front affecting
the waters north of 25N between 41W-59W. Two tropical waves are
moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA

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