[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171129
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
729 AM EDT Wed May 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the areas that are called: AGADIR and CANARIAS. The
OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid
until 18/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence of N or NE near
gale or gale in: MADEIRA, AGADIR, CANARIAS, and TARFAYA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 10N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: any
precipitation is in the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W from 10N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 06N between 50W
and 59W, in the coastal waters and the coastal plains of Brazil,
French Guiana, Suriname, and Guyana.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 13N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation: warming cloud
top temperatures and weakening precipitation in Colombia and NW
Venezuela from 06N to 11N between Lake Maracaibo and 76W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W, 12N22W, and 09N23W. The ITCZ continues from 09N23W
to 05N27W 04N34W and 04N44W. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 07N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, ACROSS
FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is digging through 32N52W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 30N56W. A shear line continues from 30N56W, to 29N66W
and 28N80W in Florida. The trough continues from Florida, across
NW Cuba, into eastern Honduras. A dissipating cold front is along
32N56W to 27N65W. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong, in
the Atlantic Ocean, from 20N northward between 40W and 80W. Upper
level N wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
90W westward.

...VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM
27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

KBBF, KBQX, KEMK, and KVOA: 3 to 5 miles and haze.

VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MISSISSIPPI: 1 or less and fog in Hattiesburg. 3 to 5 in McComb.
ALABAMA: 1 or less and fog in Evergreen. 3 to 5 and mist in
Crestview, Cross City, and Punta Gorda. light rain in the Key West
metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in the
coastal waters of Haiti. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
elsewhere from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the Atlantic
Ocean between 67W, just to the north of the Mona Passage and 80W.
It has been raining in this area, near Hispaniola and Jamaica and
SE Cuba during the last 24 hours. It is possible that more
rainfall in this area may reach land more and more in Hispaniola,
possibly causing flooding and mudslides. Please pay attention to
advisories and bulletins from local meteorology offices and other
governmental agencies.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 80W
eastward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, moving into the area from the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough extends from 26N84W in the SE corner of the Gulf
of Mexico, across NW Cuba, to 20N80W and 14N81W. a 1009 mb low
pressure center that is near 20N83W, to 18N81W and 13N81W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 11N to 16N
between 80W and 84W in the coastal waters of Nicaragua.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.
Numerous strong convective precipitation is from 16N to 19N
between 71W and 74W, in southern sections of the island.

Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in the
coastal waters of Haiti. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
elsewhere from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the Atlantic
Ocean between 67W, just to the north of the Mona Passage and 80W.
It has been raining in this area, near Hispaniola and Jamaica and
SE Cuba during the last 24 hours. It is possible that more
rainfall in this area may reach land more and more in Hispaniola,
possibly causing flooding and mudslides. Please pay attention to
advisories and bulletins from local meteorology offices and other
governmental agencies.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: light rain.
MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling
1600 feet. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR with haze.
ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1500 feet. earlier
rain has stopped for the moment.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A N-to-S oriented
ridge will be present along 70W. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500
mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the
first 30 hours to 36 hours. A trough will follow for the next 12
hours or so. 48 hours. Anticyclonic wind flow, from an east- to-
west oriented ridge, will span the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that an east-to-west oriented ridge,
that will reach Hispaniola from the Atlantic Ocean, will send
southerly wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours.
An inverted trough will be on top of the area during the last 6
hours to 12 hours.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge 32N40W to 26N50W 24N60W, and 24N70W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is to the NW of the Atlantic Ocean cold
front. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 32N17W, through
32N21W 25N30W, and 22N40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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