[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 09N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
 from
01N to 06N between 20W and 25W, in the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 09N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 12N southward
between 40W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 10N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
nothing significant.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
the wave is moving into the area of the Monsoon Trough. Scattered
to numerous strong in Costa Rica and coastal waters from 80W
westward.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to
04N16W 03N26W 03N38W and into NE Brazil near 03N52W. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
08N southward from 37W eastward. Isolated moderate from 04N to 07N
between 37W and 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, ACROSS
FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is digging through 32N67W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 29N78W, to 27N83W in the eastern parts of the Gulf of
Mexico, passing through the Yucatan Channel, to Honduras near
16N87W. A cold front passes through 32N60W to 28N70W and 26N75W.
The front is stationary from 26N75W, across Andros Island in the
Bahamas, curving to 22N80W in Cuba. Convective precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong, in the Atlantic Ocean, from 20N
northward between 45W and 80W. Upper level NW wind flow spans the
rest of the Gulf of Mexico, with comparatively drier air in
subsidence.

VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MISSISSIPPI: 1 or less and mist in Pascagoula.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from northern
sections of South America, toward Nicaragua and Honduras, and
then toward Cuba/Jamaica, Hispaniola, and beyond Puerto Rico.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, moving into the area from the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is along 21N80W 18N82W 12N82W. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong within 90 nm on either
side of the line that runs from 21N76W across SE Cuba, across
Jamaica, to 16N80W. Similar precipitation is in northern sections
of Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 09N80W in central Panama, beyond
11N85W in northern Costa Rica, and beyond southern sections of
Honduras and Guatemala. Convective precipitation: Scattered
to numerous strong in Costa Rica and coastal waters from 80W
westward. Convective debris clouds from earlier precipitation are
in the coastal waters of Colombia and Panama between 72W and 80W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 16/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are a TRACE in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. light rain
is inland, and possibe rainshowers are in the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus
clouds. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto
Plata: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A N-to-S oriented
ridge will be present along 70W. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500
mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the
next 48 hours. Anticyclonic wind flow, from an east-to-west
oriented ridge, will span the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that an east-to-west oriented ridge,
that will reach Hispaniola from the Atlantic Ocean, will send
southerly wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N31W, to
22N35W, to 14N40W, and 10N44W. A cold front passes through 32N27W
to 29N30W 27N35W, and 22N43W. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate within 90 nm on either side of the line that passes
through 32N26W 27N33W 23N42W 22N50W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that
is near 37N15W, through 32N21W 24N30W, and 21N43W. A second
surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that is
near 33N44W, to 26N47W 25N59W 24N70Wthe Madeira Archipelago, to
27N26W, 24N42W, 25N55W, to 22N70W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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