[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A gale is forecast along the coast of Morocco in the region named
Agadir tonight. The gale will end Monday morning. Please see the
Meteo France marine bulletin under www.meteofrance.com
/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the far eastern tropical Atlantic with
axis extending from 10N20W to 02N19W, moving westward at about 10
kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable
to neutral wind shear, divergent flow aloft and moderate low to
middle level moisture. This environment is supporting a cluster of
moderate convection from 03N to 07N between 19W and 23W.

A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 06N39W to 01S39W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is in a
region of favorable wind shear, divergent middle level flow and
moderate shallow moisture. Scattered moderate convection is from
03N to 02S between 34W and 42W.

A tropical wave has moved into French Guiana, however its axis
extends from 09N52W to 0N52W, moving westward at 10 kt. Convection
associated with this wave is inland South America.

A tropical wave extends from the Central Caribbean near 15N72W to
inland Colombia near 05N71W, moving westward at 20 kt within the
last 24 hours. Dry air subsidence and unfavorable wind shear in
the Caribbean inhibit convection in the basin. However, heavy
showers and tstms are inland Colombia and Venezuela.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 07N12W
to 06N15W. The ITCZ begins near 05N24W and continues to 03N37W,
then resumes west of a tropical wave near 02N41W to 04N50W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is from 03N to 07N E of 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Lingering shallow moisture associated with the passage of a cold
front support isolated showers over the Bay of Campeche, Yucatan
Channel and the Florida Straits. A ridge has build across the
basin in the wake of the front, which is being anchored by a 1018
mb high over southern Tennessee. Gentle to light N-NE winds are E
of 90W while NE-E winds dominate the western part of the basin.
The center of high pressure will move to mid-Atlc waters early on
Tuesday resulting in return flow for the Gulf beyond the middle
of the week. However, winds will increase to fresh to strong
Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of a developing area of low
pressure in the southern plains.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak cold front moved off the SE Gulf of Mexico to the NW
Caribbean waters. The front extends from western Cuba near 22N82W
SW to the NE Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W and supports scattered
to isolated showers and tstms within 90 nm either side of the
boundary, including Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. To the SE, a
pre-frontal trough extends from 19N79W to Nicaragua adjacent
waters near 12N82W. The trough is under an upper level diffluent
environment that along with abundant low to middle level moisture
support heavy showers and tstms across Jamaica and adjacent
waters from 15N to 20N between 75W and 80W. Scattered showers and
tstms are elsewhere within 90 nm either side of the trough axis S
of 16N. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean,
however it lacks convection. See the tropical waves section for
further details. Otherwise, moderate to gentle trades are basin-
wide. Showers will continue across Jamaica and vicinity and will
extend to eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage on Monday. The
passage of the cold front will support showers across Hispaniola
Monday night through Tuesday.

HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are occurring in the Windward Passage and Haiti
associated with a surface trough west of Jamaica. A cold front
west of the trough will move across Cuba tonight and Monday, and
across Hispaniola Tuesday. This will lead to a progressive
increase in the amount and areal coverage of showers across the
Island starting tonight and continuing through the middle of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Mainly supported by a middle level trough, a weak cold front
extends from 30N71W SW across the northern Bahamas to the NW
coast of Cuba near 23N81W. Isolated showers and tstms associated
with the front are in the Great Bahama Bank and the Florida
Straits. In the central Atlc, a second weak cold front extends
from 30N36W to 25N49W lacking convection. The remainder basin is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb
center of high pressure near 24N55W, which will move NE off the
area of discussion within the next 24 hours. Otherwise, three
tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Please
refer to the tropical waves section above for details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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