[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N.  The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has moved off the west coast of Africa with the
axis extending along 14W from 02N to 10N and is moving west
about 20 knots.  Strong convection is located within a 120
nautical miles radius of 04N14.5W.

A tropical wave has entered the far eastern Caribbean with the
axis extending along 62W south of 14N into South America and is
moving westward at about 10 kt.  No significant convection is
associated with the wave.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 10N16W
and extends to 04N24W.  The ITCZ begins near 04N24W and
continues to 03N34W to 08N55W.  Scattered moderate/strong
convection is located from 02N to 05N between 21W and 28W and
within a 90 nautical mile radius of 07N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate westerly zonal winds aloft covers the entire Gulf early
this afternoon with speeds in the 55 to 70 knot range.  A
middle/upper level trough is forecast to move into the western
Gulf on Sunday and into the middle Gulf on Monday.  A cold front
is positioned from the far western Florida Panhandle to 25N90W
to the Mexican coast at 22N.  The front is easily identifiable
on the latest visible satellite imagery and ship and buoy
observations.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Flow aloft is generally anticyclonic over the western third of
the basin with strong subsidence over the eastern two-thirds of
the discussion area as depicted in water vapor imagery.  As
mentioned above a tropical wave has entered the far eastern
Caribbean.  Scatterometer passes depict gentle to moderate
trades across the basin.

HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island except for increased
cloudiness over the mountainous areas of the western Dominican
Republic.  A surface high...1017 mb...is centered northeast of
the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad middle/upper level ridge is located over the western
Atlantic west of about 67W.  In the west central Atlantic a
middle/upper level trough has its axis extending through 32N55W
to 20N62W and is moving east 15 to 20 knots.  An associated cold
front extends through 32N51W to 27N66W and continues north as a
stationary front through 32N72W.  A pre-frontal trough is
located from 31N46W to 20N56W.  A strong jet lies from near the
base of the trough near 18N57W to 26N50W to beyond 32N41W with
winds in the 70 to 80 knot range.  Overcast middle/high level
clouds lie up to 10 degrees east of the jet.  Moving downstream
a middle/upper level ridge has its axis along 33W/34W north of
18N.  Finally, a middle/upper level trough is located along the
coast of Africa north of about 22N.  A 1017 mb high is centered
near 23N65W and is moving east northeast.  A 1023 mb surface
high is centered near 29N30W and is moving rapidly northeast.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

CAB
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