[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 13N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 11N southward between 51W and 57W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Upper level SW wind
flow is cutting across the area of this tropical wave. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong in Guyana and Venezuela from 04N to
07N between 59W and 63W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 10N18W and 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 05N23W
to 03N30W 06N41W and 04N51W at the coast of Brazil. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to strong from 05N
southward between 19W and 34W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 05N to 08N between 42W and 50W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is digging through Louisiana and the northern
half of the Texas Gulf coast. The trough is supporting a cold
front that passes through SE Louisiana, into the NE Gulf of
Mexico, to the NE coastal Mexico near 24N98W. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 28N in
the water northward between the Florida west coast and 88W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from Mexico to Central
America, within 210 nm of the coastlines, from Honduras to 26N in
Mexico.

Upper level SW wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.
This SW wind flow is on the western side of a ridge, that is along
78W.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 50W WESTWARD, INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N58W, to
24N60W, into the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea near 15N64W,
into northern Venezuela. A cold front is passint through 32N57W to
27N66W, and 29N69W. A stationary front continues from 29N69W to
32N73W. A warm front continues from 32N73W to a 1008 mb low
pressure center that is near 34N76W. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is within 200 nm to 600 nm to the SE and S of the line
30N54W 24N60W 21N70W 20N84W. Most of the comparatively drier air
is in the Caribbean Sea, and the area in which the drier air is
about 600 nm to the SE and S of the line. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 30 nm to the east of the line that passes through 32N55W
29N57W 27N62W. Rainshowers are possible within 600 nm to the east
of the line that passes through 32N51W 26N52W 19N57W 10N62W.

The Monsoon Trough is along 11N72W 12N83W beyond 11N86W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N southward
from 72W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 13/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.34 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is moving across
Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery in Hispaniola.  Convectiveprecipitation:
rainshowers are possible inland and in the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR.
scattered cumulonimbus clouds. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC:
Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. La
Romana and Punta Cana:VFR. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the first 36 hours to 42 hours. W wind
flow and SW wind flow are forecast, at the end of the 48-hour
forecast period. An anticyclonic circulation center is forecast to
move to the E and eventually toward the SE, from the east central
coast of Nicaragua toward the Netherlands Antilles. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that a ridge is forecast to move from
the eastern half of Cuba, across Hispaniola, and eventually more
eastward into the Atlantic Ocean. Anticyclonic wind flow will move
across Hispaniola during the first 24 hours. SW wind flow will
move across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area
during the first 12 hours or so. SW and S wind flow will follow
for about the next 24 hours or so. More anticyclonic wind flow
will continue until the end of the 48-hour forecast period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 16N
northward between Africa and 30W. An upper level trough passes
through 32N15W to 27N19W to 17N26W. Broad surface cyclonic wind
flow covers the area from 28N northward between Africa and 30W.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N42W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 14N northward from
62W eastward. A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure
center that is near 34N06W, to 30N19W, to a 1022 mb high pressure
center that is near 28N35W, to 22N48W and 21N63W, to a 1016 mb
high pressure center that is near 24N72W, to 24N86W in the SE
corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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