[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
741 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the Atlantic with axis extending from
12N52W to 00N51W, moving westward at 15 kt. Abundant moisture
prevails in this wave's environment, as noted in TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate convection prevails along the wave axis south
of 07N.

A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean with axis
extending from 15N61W to 03N63W, moving westward at about 10 kt.
Abundant moisture prevails along and to the east of the axis, as
noted in TPW imagery. Scattered light to moderate convection
prevails south of 09N between 60W-65W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 10N14W
and extends to 05N20W. The ITCZ begins near 05N20W and continues
to 03N34W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-
07N between 24W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is just off the coast of Texas from 30N93W to
27N97W. To the east, a squall line extends from 30N89W to 29N91W.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm
of the squall line affecting the waters north of 28N. A 1016 mb
high is centered east of the Bahamas near 23N70W extends a ridge
axis west across the Gulf waters. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate northerly winds north of the front while a light to
gentle anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere. Expect in 24 hours
for the cold front to continue moving southeast and extend from
Northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave has entered the east Caribbean. Please refer to
the section above for details. A 1016 mb surface high centered
east of the Bahamas near 23N71W extends across the remainder of
the basin. To the south, the monsoon trough extends along 11N
between 75W-84W supporting isolated moderate convection mainly
south of 14N. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades
across the basin. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical
wave and the monsoon trough to continue to produce showers and
convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. A surface
high is centered just north of the island. With this, strong
subsidence prevails over the island. Little change is expected
through the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Please refer to the
section above for details. A 1016 mb high is centered east of the
Bahamas near 23N71W. To the north, a cold front is just entered
the west Atlantic extending from a 1004 mb low near 32N62W to
29N67W to 31N73W. Scattered showers are observed along the front.
An upper-level trough extends across the west central Atlantic
with axis along 62W. A diffluent flow prevails east of the trough
supporting cloudiness and scattered showers north of 10N between
50W-60W. A 1021 mb surface high is centered near 27N38W and
dominates the remainder of the basin. Expect for the front in the
west-central Atlantic to become stationary with showers. Little
change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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