[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 PM EDT Fri May 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the Atlantic with axis extending from
12N50W to 00N50W, moving westward at 15 kt. SSMI total precipitable
water imagery shows a moist area S of 14N. No significant
convection is noted however.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from
14N60W to 03N61W, moving westward at 10 kt. SSMI total precipitable
water imagery shows a very moist area S of 17N. The GFS 700 mb
streamline analysis shows a trough axis along 60W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 09N13W
and extends to 05N17W. The ITCZ begins near 05N17W and continues
to 03N30W to 03N42W to the South American coast near 00N49W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N-07N
between 13W-19W, and 01N-05N between 30W-35W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 02N-06N between 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 12/1500 UTC, a cold front is just off the coast of Texas
from 30N93W to 27N97W. A squall line extends from S Mississippi
near 31N89W to S of Louisiana near 28N93W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm of the squall line. A 1017 mb high is
centered E of the Bahamas near 23N70W. A Ridge axis extends NW
from the high to the Florida Panhandle producing 10 kt SE to S
surface winds over the E Gulf of Mexico. In the upper levels, the
base of an upper level trough is over Texas and the NW Gulf
supporting the cold front. The remainder of the Gulf has zonal
flow. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend from the
Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave has entered the E Caribbean SA 1017 mb high is
centered E of the Bahamas near 23N70W.ea. See above. The
remainder of the Caribbean has relatively lax 10-15 kt tradewind
flow. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean,
Panama, and Costa Rica, S of 12N. Scattered showers are over
Nicaragua. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean W
of 75W. A trough is over the E Caribbean. Upper level diffluence
is E of the trough axis enhancing showers and convection over the
Atlantic between 55W-60W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the
tropical wave and the monsoon trough to continue to produce
showers and convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. A surface
high is N of the island. Furthermore, strong subsidence is also
over the island. Expect fair weather to persist for the next 24
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb high is centered E of the Bahamas near 23N70W. The tail
end of a dissipating cold front is over the central Atlantic from
31N52W to 25N60W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.
A large 1022 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 27N38W.
Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W
Atlantic with axis along 60W N of 20N. Upper level diffluence is
E of the trough axis enhancing showers and convection over the
Atlantic between 50W-60W. Expect over the next 24 hours for a cold
front to enter the central Atlantic and reach 31N51W with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

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