[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111119
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
718 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W, from 10N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong, from 02N to 07N between
30W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 11N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Upper level SW wind
flow is cutting across the area of this tropical wave. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N to
11N between 54W and 58W.

An inland tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 11N southward,
inland in Venezuela and Colombia, moving westward 15 knots. The
northern part of this wave is moving through an area of an upper
level trough. Convective precipitation: numerous strong in
Venezuela from 06N to 08N between 64W and 66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 04N14W and 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from
04N17W to 04N31W 01N40W, and 01N45W. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 01N to 05N between 43W and 49W. scattered
strong within 30 nm on either side of 06N38W 04N43W, and from 02N
southward between 42W and 44W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from
10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 92W/93W in the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
area.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface ridge extends from a 1019 mb high pressure center is near
28N85W into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES
THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND
FROM 88W WESTWARD...

KMZG, KBBF, and KBQX: 1 to 3 miles and mist.
KXIH and KHHV: 3 to 5 miles and mist. KVOA: 4 miles and haze.

VISIBILITY IN MILES AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: Hebbronville, Falfurrias, Victoria, and Jasper: 3 to 5/
haze. LOUISIANA: Slidell: 1 mile or less/mist. NAS New Orleans:
5 miles/mist. FLORIDA: Milton: 4 miles/mist. Crestview: 1/4 and
fog. Marianna: 3/4 and mist. Apalachicola: 1-2/mist. Perry and
Cross City: 5/mist.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 50W WESTWARD, INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through Bermuda, to
25N67W, through Mona and Puerto Rico, beyond northern Venezuela.
A surface trough is along 23N62W 21N65W, to Puerto Rico. A cold
front passes through 32N55W to 27N61W. The cold front is
dissipating from 27N61W to 24N64W. A cold front/stationary front
is along 31N/32N between Bermuda and 74W. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 18N to 22N between 60W
and 64W. isolated moderate within 360 nm on either side of the
line that passes through 32N42W 24N55W 14N68W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 16N northward between 70W and 80W, and
from 16N southward between from 60W westward. Isolated moderate
from 11N southward from 77W westward. The Monsoon Trough is along
10N/11N between 73W in Colombia and beyond northern Costa Rica.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 11/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.59 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow, is on the western side
of the trough that is reaching the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery in Hispaniola. A surface trough is along 24N62W 21N65W,
to Puerto Rico. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible
inland and in the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana:
VFR. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area. Hispaniola will be on the western side of a
trough. The trough will continue to move eastward during the next
48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that cyclonic
wind flow will move across the area during the first 24 hours
of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect NW wind flow to follow the
cyclonic wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that
cyclonic wind flow will cover the area for the first 30 hours.
Broad southerly wind flow, with some brief anticyclonic wind
flow, will be present for the rest of the forecast period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N15W to 26N24W and 19N38W.
Broad surface cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 30N
northward between Africa and 30W.

A surface ridge passes through 34N05W to 27N13W 22N23W, to a 1020
mb high pressure center that is near 27N44W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 15N northward from 55W
eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
between 70W and 80W. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near
26N77W in the NW Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net