[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W, from 11N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong, from 03N to 07N between 28W and 34W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/54W from 11N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Upper level SW wind
flow is cutting across the area of this tropical wave. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 10N southward
between 49W and 56W.

An inland tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 11N southward,
inland in Venezuela and Colombia, moving westward 15 knots. The
northern part of this wave is moving through an area of an upper
level trough. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong in Venezuela from 07N to 09N between 63W and 67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 13N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 05N29W
02N44W, to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Convective
precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 02N to 06N
between 36W and 48W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 07N
southward from 27W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 92W/93W in the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
area.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb high pressure center is
near 28N85W into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES
THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND
FROM 88W WESTWARD...

KMZG, KBBF, and KBQX: 1 to 3 miles and mist.
KHHV, KEMK, and KHQI: 3 to 5 miles and mist.
KVOA: 4 miles and haze.

VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: Edinburg 3 to 5 miles with haze. MISSISSIPPI: Pascagoula:
1 mile or less and mist.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 50W WESTWARD, INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through Bermuda, to
25N67W, through Mona and Puerto Rico, beyond northern Venezuela.
A surface trough is along 23N62W 21N65W, to Puerto Rico. A cold
front passes through 32N56W to 27N61W. The cold front is
dissipating from 27N61W to 24N64W. A cold front/stationary
front is along 31N/32N between Bermuda and 72W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate within 360 nm on either side of
the line that passes through 32N46W 24N55W 15N65W. Rainshowers
are possible elsewhere from 17N northward between 60W and 80W,
and from 15N southward between 60W and 80W. Numerous strong in
the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, in the coastal waters of
Costa Rica and Panama, from 11N southward between 82W and 84W.
The Monsoon Trough is along 10N/11N between 73W in Colombia and
beyond northern Costa Rica.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 11/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.59 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow, is on the western side
of the trough that is reaching the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery in Hispaniola. A surface trough is along 23N62W 21N65W,
to Puerto Rico. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible inland and in the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto
Plata: VFR. earlier cumulonimbus clouds in Puerto Plata have
dissipated.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area. Hispaniola will be on the western side of a
trough. The trough will continue to move eastward during the next
48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that cyclonic
wind flow will move across the area during the first 24 hours
of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect NW wind flow to follow the
cyclonic wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that
cyclonic wind flow will cover the area for the first 30 hours.
Broad southerly wind flow, with some brief anticyclonic wind
flow, will be present for the rest of the forecast period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N15W to 26N24W and 19N38W.
Broad surface cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 30N
northward between Africa and 31W.

A surface ridge passes through 34N05W to 29N12W 22N23W 26N37W,
to a 1021 mb high pressure center that is near 26N47W. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 15N northward
from 54W eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
between 70W and 80W. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near
27N77W in the NW Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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