[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
133 PM EDT Wed May 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlc with an axis extending
from 09N29W to 01N30W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt over the
past 24 hours. This wave can be tracked back to its exit off the
African coast a couple of days ago in infrared satellite imagery,
and also continues to be well defined in wave diagnostic model
fields. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of either
side of the wave axis south of 07N.

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with an axis
extending from 12N51W to 01N52W, moving westward at nearly 20 kt
over the past 24 hours. This wave is at the leading edge of a
deep surge of moisture, with an inverted trough apparent in 700 mb
model fields. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is within
120 nm of either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends from the extreme southern Caribbean near
11N64W and over Venezuela, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. This wave
shows up in 700 mb model fields. However, due to dry air, no
convection is noted.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 15N17W
and extends to 07N20W. The ITCZ begins near 07N20W and continues
to 04N28W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 03N32W and
continues to 01N40W to 04N52W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is from 01N to 10N between 10W and 20W, and within 240 nm N and
120 nm S of the ITCZ axis W of 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An area of high pressure of 1019 mb is centered over the
northeastern Gulf near 28N87W, supporting light to gentle winds
over the northeastern Gulf, moderate southeast winds over the
southeastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh southeasterly winds over
the western Gulf. A convection free surface trough is over the
southwestern Gulf extending from 23N94W to the coast of Mexico
near 18N94W. A brief northeast wind shift is associated with this
trough. Dry air and subsidence dominates the Gulf today, with no
convection noted. Over the next 24 hours a cold front may clip the
northeastern Gulf with showers and thunderstorms. A thermal
trough will produce strong winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche
tonight. Otherwise, little change is expected.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally fair weather dominates the northwest and central
Caribbean, with easterly winds 13 to 18 kt. The eastern extension
of the E Pacific monsoon trough crosses Panama near 10N84W and
extends to the Colombia coast near 10N75W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm of either side of the trough axis.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the trough.
Moderate easterly winds are north of the trough. A mid to upper
level trough over the northeastern Caribbean supports a surface
trough that extends from the western Atlantic to Puerto Rico to
16N67W. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 17N, east of
67W, with scattered showers and thunderstorms elsewhere north of
15N and east of 72W. Moderate to fresh northeasterly winds cover
the Caribbean east of 72W. Moderate easterly winds cover the
southeast Caribbean. Little change is forecast over the next 24
hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Under the presence of a mid to upper level trough, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are developing in the daytime heating.
Expect these showers and thunderstorms to diminish after sunset.
Drier conditions are expected on Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 mb area of high pressure centered near 28N76W dominates the
southwestern north Atlantic with fair weather. Light to gentle
winds are north of 25N, west of 65W. Mainly moderate northeast
winds are south of 25N and west of 65W. An upper trough along 65W
from 31N to the northeastern Caribbean supports a pair of surface
troughs. The westernmost trough extends from 22N65W to Puerto
Rico. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this trough axis. The
easternmost trough extends from 23N58W to 18N61W and is
interacting with the upper trough to support numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms within 240 nm southeast of a line from
27N56W to 16N62W. A cold front enters the area of discussion near
31N58W and extends to 28N61W. Moderate convection is within 90 nm
east of the front. A 1021 mb high centered near 27N46W dominates
the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic. Over the next
24 hours expect showers and thunderstorms to continue with the
easternmost surface trough and the upper trough, as well as with
the cold front. Another cold front will clip our northern
discussion waters of the central Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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