[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 09N35W to 04S37W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Cyclonic curvature is noted in infrared satellite imagery and
model fields between 32W-39W. SSMI total precipitable water
imagery depicts the wave well. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the axis N of 00N.

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 11N52W to 01S53W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
This wave has become less well defined over the past 24 hours.
However, some signature remains in infrared satellite imagery and
in model fields. No significant convection is related to this wave
at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 12N16W
and extends to 07N16W. The ITCZ begins near 07N16W and continues
to 01N30W to 02N35W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near
00N38W and extends to the South American coast near 02S45W. Aside
from convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered
moderate convection is from 01N-08N between 18W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb surface high remains centered over the northeast Gulf
near 28N87W, supporting 10-15 kt anticyclonic flow. 15-20 kt SE
flow is over the W Gulf with strongest winds along the Texas coast.
Fair weather dominates the E Gulf, while broken upper level high
clouds over S Texas and the NW Gulf. Over the next 24 hours, the
surface high will move N to S Mississippi. Expect scattered
showers to be along the S Texas and the NE Mexico coasts, due to
onshore return flow.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a stationary front extends from the S Bahamas to E
Cuba near 20N75W. A prefrontal trough extends from the Turks and
Caicos Islands to central Hispaniola. Scattered showers are over
the E Caribbean between 62W-74W. A surface trough is over the SW
Caribbean from 15N82W to 09N82W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 10N-14N between 75W-84W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate
convection is inland over NW Venezuela. In the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over the Caribbean with axis along 75W.
Upper level diffluence E of the trough axis is enhancing the
showers over the E Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for an
increase of showers over the E Caribbean, and SW Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are presently over the island due mostly to
prefrontal activity. Enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity
will persist for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slow moving cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to the
S Bahamas near 22N72W. Scattered moderate convection is E of front
to 60W, N of 23N. Scattered showers are within 240 nm E of the
remainder of the front. A 1023 mb high is over the central
Atlantic near 32N54W. A quasi-stationary front is over the E
Atlantic from 31N21W to 22N37W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm of the front. Expect over the next 24 hours for the W Atlantic
front to move slowly E with convection, while the E Atlantic front
dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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