[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A strong cold front is moving through the Atlantic Ocean near
32N80W, across Florida near 29N82W, across the easternmost part
of the Gulf of Mexico from 27N82W to the NE part of the Yucatan
Peninsula, to 18N93W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. NW winds 20 knots to 30 knots, with frequent gusts to 35
knots, and sea heights ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet, are to the
N of 28N to the west of the front to 89W. Please read the latest
National Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The 6-hour forecast consists of cold front, from 31N78W to
28N80.5W. Expect SW-to-W winds 20 knots to 30 knots, with frequent
gusts to 35 knots, and sea heights reaching 10 feet, to the N of
29N to the W of the front. Please read the latest
National Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 05N12W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W
to 01N20W, to the Equator along 29W, and to the Equator along
42W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 01N to 03N
from 02W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
elsewhere to the south of 10N from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD, ACROSS FLORIDA, AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA,
AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A vigorous upper level trough is passing through Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle, into the central part of the Gulf of Mexico.
The trough is pushing a strong cold front through the Atlantic
Ocean near 32N80W, across Florida near 29N82W, across the
easternmost part of the Gulf of Mexico from 27N82W to the NE part
of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 18N93W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico. A surface trough extends from the Yucatan
Channel near 22N86W, into the coastal waters of Belize, the Gulf
of Honduras, and western sections of Honduras. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N77W
to 27N79W to 20N85W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea from 16N northward from 80W westward.

Surface high pressure is pushing southward, through the Deep South
of Texas, to 19N96W in southern Mexico.

...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES
THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND
FROM 88W WESTWARD...

KVOA: 5 and haze; and KVKY: 3 and haze.

VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FLORIDA: light rain has ended for the moment in Apalachicola.
1 mile or less and haze in Tallahassee. light rain and 4 miles in
Marathon Key. rain has ended for the moment in the Key West
metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
75W westward. The anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
and Central America. Middle level-to-upper level W-to-NW wind flow
spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 25N67W,
across the SE Bahamas and Cuba, to 19N83W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 71W eastward, and
from 17N northward between the Windward Passage and 80W, around
Jamaica and Cuba.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 04/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.02 in Montego
Bay in Jamaica, and a TRACE in Trinidad and Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow Is moving across
Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto
Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb and for 500 mb shows that broad
anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area with a ridge.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that S wind flow will
move across the island. An anticyclonic circulation center will be
to the east of Hispaniola.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N28W to
26N38W, to a 23N47W cyclonic circulation center, to 16N52W, to
12N60W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 32N
northward from 20W eastward.

Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in scattered
to broken low level clouds drom 20N northward between Africa and
70W.

A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 32N51W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 12N
northward between Africa and 72W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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