[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W
to 06N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from
05N20W to 02N30W to the coast of South America near 01S46W.
A surface trough is analyzed from 09N27W to 03N28W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 06S-03N between 27W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper-level low centered over the upper Midwest is
lifting northward with the trailing trough beginning to shear out
over the north-central Gulf. This is providing limited support for
a weakening cold front that as of 2100 UTC extends from the
Florida Big Bend near 30N84W to 27N87W where it became stationary
through 23N91W to the Bay of Campeche. Broken to overcast multi-
layered cloudiness with embedded showers were noted within 180-240
Nm east of the front, extending over Florida and Georgia. A
surface ridge extends across Florida to 28N85W and was beginning
to bridge the front to a 1016 MB surface high near 29N93W. Surface
observations showed light winds across most of the Gulf with
winds shifting from the S and SE east of the front to northerly or
light and variable west of the front. Increasing SE return flow
was developing along the Texas coast. The cold front is expected
to move east during the next 24 hours while dissipating. SE return
flow will spread across the Gulf west of 90W as another area of
low pressure develops across Texas by midweek and moves northeast
across the lower Mississippi River valley.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Most of the Caribbean basin is under the influence of dry and
relatively stable W to NW flow aloft on the eastern periphery of
an upper-level anticyclone centered over Nicaragua near 12N87W.
A well defined upper level low centered near the Turks and Caicos
has an associated upper level trough extending through the
Windward Passage/western Haiti to a base near 17N75W. Upper level
diffluence was noted E of the upper low over the southwestern
N Atlantic across Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Extensive
cloudiness and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were
noted over both areas. Locally heavy rainfall resulted in flooding
across Puerto Rico over the past few days. The 1200 UTC rawinsonde
from San Juan showed precipitable water values close to 2.00
inches with deep moisture to 350 mb. A surface trough extends
across the EPAC to near Costa Rica and supports isolated moderate
convection south of 12N between 78W-82W. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Over the next
24 hours a surface trough is forecast to develop east of the
upper- level low in the vicinity of Hispaniola and move west
across the western Atlantic through Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring
across eastern Haiti and the Dominican Republic and northeastward
over the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. This activity is due to a
middle to upper- level low centered in the vicinity of the Turks
and Caicos. Although the 1200 UTC rawinsonde from Santo Domingo
showed precipitable water values of 1.63 inches with modest
moisture to 600 mb, indication are the amount of moisture is
forecast to increase over the next 24 hours as a surface trough
develops in the vicinity of the island and moves west across the
west Atlantic through Thursday with the potential for localized
heavy rainfall and flooding.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A vast anticyclone and ridging covers most of the western
Atlantic with the main anticyclone centered near 28N52W.  A mid to
upper- level low centered near the Turks and Caicos is producing
abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms
affecting the area south of 25N between 65W-71W. At the surface
a ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near Bermuda dominates
the western Atlantic. Farther east, a middle to upper- level
trough over the central Atlantic supports a cold front that
extends into the area from 31N44W to 28N55W to 30N65W. Broken to
overcast low clouds with isolated embedded showers are possible
within 240 NM east of the front N of 28N. The remainder of the
eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1023 mb high centered well north of the area near
39N11W. Over the next 24 hours a surface trough will develop in
the vicinity of Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas and move west
across the west Atlantic through Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cobb
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