[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
07N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
02N14W to the Equator near 20W then continues through 02S30W to
the coast of South America near 03S42W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted from the Equator to 04S
between 30W-43W. Isolated moderate convection is located from
01N-03N between 25W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad WSW mid to upper level flow dominates the Gulf of Mexico
in the wake of a sheared mid to upper level trough located over
the NE Gulf. Strong deep layered subsidence was noted over the
northern half of the Gulf while mainly upper level moisture was
streaming NE over the southern half of the Gulf. The sheared
trough was providing limited support for a weakening/dissipating
cold front extending from the Tampa Bay area to 25N87.5W which
became a dissipating stationary front to 22.5N94W. A pre-frontal
squall line extended from just SW of Fort Myers, Florida to
25N86W. Scattered thunderstorms were noted within 45-60 NM of
the squall line. A weak 1012 MB high pressure was noted in the
wake of the front near 29N87W. The cold front is expected to
dissipate overnight tonight or early Saturday as E to SE return
flow increases over the western half of the Gulf by Saturday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large upper level anticyclone centered over northern Venezuela
dominates the flow over the Caribbean with strong mid to upper
level subsidence over most of the basin except for the extreme
northwest portion. At the surface conditions remain relatively
tranquil across the basin with patches of broken to overcast low
clouds with embedded showers over the northern Leeward Islands
and within 60 NM either side of a line from 16N66W to 15N73W.
light to moderate trade winds of 10-15 KT were noted over the
basin. Little change in the overall conditions is expected over
the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Strong subsidence is noted on water vapor imagery over the
island. The latest visible satellite imagery showed locally
broken to overcast low clouds with possible embedded showers.
The 1200 UTC rawinsonde from Santo Domingo showed limited
moisture below 770 MB with strong subsidence above that level.
Little change in overall conditions expected through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large complex middle to upper level low is centered over the
north-central Atlantic near 43N47W that supports a cold front
entering the discussion area near 32N43W. The front extends SW
to 26N53W to 24N63W with minimal shower activity either side of
the front. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from 32N40W to
23N47W. Widely scattered showers are located within 60 nm either
side of the trough. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb
high centered near 29N65W. A fairly flat middle to upper level
trough is moving rapidly off the east coast of the United
States. A subtropical jet extends from just N of Trinidad to
16N50W to beyond 20N40W. In the eastern Atlantic...a surface
ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high near 36N17W is providing mostly
fair conditions and clear skies E of a ridge axis extending from
the high SW to 20N35W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cobb
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