[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
606 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N08W to
01N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
01N16W to the Equator near 18W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is S of 05N between the Prime Meridian and 16W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-06N between 16W-20W...and
from 01N-03N between 25W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level trough axis extends from over the SE CONUS
SW to a base over the western Gulf near 25N91W. The troughing
supports a cold front extending from southern Mississippi and SE
Louisiana near 30N90W SW to 25N94W and a pre-frontal surface
trough from 29N90W to 23N92W. East of the boundaries scattered
showers and tstms are occurring N of 26N E of 86W...including
interior portions of northern Florida and the central Florida
peninsula. In wake of the front...weak surface ridging continues
building in across the western Gulf anchored by a 1012 mb high
centered near 27N96W and a 1015 mb centered along the Mexico coast
near 23N98W. Mainly moderate southerly winds prevail E of the
front as it continues eastward through Friday night. The front
will clear the basin into Saturday as fresh to strong SE winds re-
establish across the western Gulf through the weekend as an area
of low pressure develops across the southern Plains.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Conditions remain relatively tranquil across the basin this
morning as an middle to upper level ridge prevails over the
western Caribbean and mostly dry northwesterly flow aloft prevails
over the eastern Caribbean. Within the NW flow...a shear line
extends from Guadeloupe to 14N72W. Low-level moisture convergence
is maximized across the eastern Caribbean in the vicinity of the
shear line generating isolated showers generally within 90 nm
either side of the boundary. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades
continue and will persist through the weekend into early next
week.

...HISPANIOLA...
Strong subsidence is noted on water vapor imagery over the island
this morning...however low-level moisture and cloudiness
continues to impact south-central portions of the island with
possible isolated shower activity generally S of 19N between 70W-
72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A vigorous middle to upper level low is centered over the
north-central North Atlc near 42N50W that supports a cold front
entering the discussion area near 32N46W. The front extends SW to
27N60W to 25N70W with isolated showers possible within 90 nm
either side of the front. The remainder of the SW North Atlc is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high
centered off the NE CONUS near 40N70W. Within the southwestern
periphery of the ridge...a warm front extends from 28N75W NW to
the central South Carolina coast near 33N79W. Isolated showers
are occurring N of 29N W of 73W. The surface ridge is forecast to
slide eastward through Friday night as southerly winds increase
into fresh to strong breeze levels generally N of 28N W of 73W as
a cold front approaches the SE CONUS coastline. By early
Saturday...the cold front will have emerged off the coast and
into the SW North Atlc waters ushering in a round of gentle to
moderate northerly winds. Farther east...a dissipating cold
front...likely the first frontal wave of energy associated with
the vigorous North Atlc upper level low...extends from 30N41W SW
to 21N50W to Guadeloupe in the Lesser Antilles near 16N61W.
Widely scattered showers and possible isolated tstms are occurring
generally N of 25N between 29W and the boundary. Lastly...across
the eastern Atlc...a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high
centered NW of the Madeira Islands near 34N19W is providing
mostly fair conditions and clear skies E of a ridge axis extending
from the high SW to 16N48W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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