[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A middle to upper level shortwave trough is observed on water
vapor imagery supporting a 1004 mb low centered near 28N64W. Near-gale
to gale-force winds are occurring in the northern semicircle of
the low within 150 nm of the center. The low is forecast to move
northeast during the next 48 hours with near-gale to gale-force
winds rotating around its center. By Thursday evening...the low
will have moved north of the discussion area. Please see the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
00N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 00N20W to
00N35W. A surface trough extend west of the ITCZ from 09N40W to
00N41W. Isolated moderate convection prevails within 50 nm on
either side of the Monsoon Trough mainly east of 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid to upper-level ridging prevails over the basin with water
vapor imagery indicating relatively dry and stable air. A surface
ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1018 mb near 29N82W.
A broad low pressure area anchored over northern Mexico and
southern Texas extends across the west Gulf waters mainly west of
93W. This synoptic pattern provides gentle to moderate return
flow east of 90W and moderate to fresh southeast flow west of
90W. Winds in the western basin will increase tonight to fresh to
strong ahead of the next cold front to emerge the coast of Texas
Thursday morning. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the
vicinity of the front as it moves southeast across the Gulf
through Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin
with mostly dry and stable conditions noted on water vapor
imagery. Over the eastern portion of the basin, abundant moisture
is being advected from the tropical Atlantic. This moisture
supports shallow convection across the northeast Caribbean
affecting Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. With the Special
Features' low pressure area located north of Puerto Rico, the
pressure gradient remains fairly weak and results in gentle to
moderate trades across the whole basin. These conditions are
expected to persist through the next 24-48 hours with the
exception of occasional fresh E-SE winds across the Gulf of
Honduras. Little change is expected through the remainder of the
week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Dry and stable air aloft prevails within southwesterly flow
aloft. Low-level moisture convergence combined with orographic
lifting is enhancing a few showers over the island. This activity
will dissipate overnight. As the Special Features' low pressure
continues moving northeast away from the island during the next
24 hours, drier weather will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary focus for the west Atlantic is the Special Features
low pressure area centered on a 1004 mb low near 28N64W. A warm
front extends northeast from the low to 31N57W to 29N46W. A
weakening stationary front connects to the warm front from 29N46W
to 31N28W. Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity of the
warm front mainly north of 30N between 48W-62W. The west Atlantic
is under the influence of a surface ridge associated with a 1019
mb high centered near 32N75W. The remainder of the central and
eastern Atlantic is also under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1024 mb high near 35N50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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