[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
707 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The current synoptic analysis consists of: a surface trough
from 29N66W, to a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near
24N69W, to 20N70W. Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds and sea heights
ranging from 13 feet to 18 feet, within 30 NM on either side of
the line from 28N63W to 27N68W to 26N69.5W. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 28/1200 UTC,
consists of: the threat or persistence of SW near gale or gale
in IRVING.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, curving to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from
04N13W, to 01N21W, curving to the Equator along 31W, to 02S40W,
near the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong from 01N to 03N between 14W and 17W, from 03N
southward between 20W and 36W, and from 04N southward between 38W
and 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is moving from the central sections of the
Gulf of Mexico into the eastern half of the area. It is spreading
upper level anticyclonic wind flow everywhere in the Gulf of
Mexico. An upper level cyclonic circulation center and trough are
in the central sections of the U.S.A. The southernmost part of the
trough has moved into the extreme NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
near the upper Texas Gulf coast and SW Louisiana. The convective
precipitation that has been in Texas, moving with the trough, has
weakened and dissipated in the upper Texas Gulf coastal plains.

A surface ridge passes through 32N78W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across NE Florida, into the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KBBF and KBQX.

MVFR: KMZG, KXIH, KVAF, KEMK, KHQI, KVQT, KEIR, KGRY,
and KIKT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR from Hebbronville into parts of the middle Texas Gulf
coastal plains, with some IFR also. MVFR from Victoria to the
Houston metropolitan area and surrounding smaller communities and
to Conroe, and from Galveston to Beaumont/Port Arthur and Jasper.
LOUISIANA: MVFR in the SW and south central coastal sections, to
the south of Baton Rouge, and in parts of the SE coastal plains.
MISSISSIPPI: MVFR, some IFR, from Natchez-Hattiesburg southward.
ALABAMA: LIFR in Dothan. IFR/MVFR from Ft. Rucker westward and
southwestward, between Florida and Mississippi. FLORIDA:
LIFR/IFR from Tallahassee westward, into the Florida Panhandle.
MVFR at the Tampa Executive Airport. IFR in Punta Gorda.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 32N75W to 23N71W to Jamaica,
to 16N81W, to southern Nicaragua. A surface ridge passes through
32N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, across NE Florida, into the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. A surface trough is along 29N66W, to a 1009
mb low pressure center that is near 24N69W, to central sections of
the Dominican Republic, to 19N70W at the coast of the Dominican
Republic. Convective precipitation: Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate from 22N northward between
55W and 72W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 18N to 22N
between 60W and 70W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The dividing line of wind flow regimes is the Atlantic Ocean
23N71W-to-Nicaragua upper level trough. Upper level SW wind flow
covers everywhere that is to the east of the trough. Upper level
NW wind flow is to the NW of the trough.

No 24-hour rainfall totals are listed for the period that ended
at 27/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow is moving across the
island. Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal
waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR for
visibility. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo
Domingo: VFR. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: IFR for
visibility. mist. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will extend
from Colombia to 10N95W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows that SW wind
flow will be moving across the area, with a trough to the W and NW
of the area. The wind flow will become SW-to-W, as a second
trough moves into the Windward Passage at the end of the 48-hour
forecast period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N15W to 22N23W and 10N25W.
A dissipating cold front passes through 32N27W to 30N30W and
28N36W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
17N to 24N between Africa and 30W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 10N
to 29N between Africa and the dissipating cold front. A 1021 mb
high pressure center is near 28N24W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 30N
northward between 42W and the SE coast of the U.S.A.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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