[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough extends from 25N65W to 18N68W to 12N70W. A
surface low is expected to develop in this area by this afternoon.
The pressure gradient will be sufficient to support gale-force
winds from 24N-26N between 64W-69W beginning this afternoon. The
low is expected to intensify during the next few days as it moves
northward across the Atlantic. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal Africa near 08N13W
to 03N21W. The ITCZ begins near 03N21W to 01N32W to 02S43W.
Scattered light to moderate convection is observed within 50 nm on
either side of both boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored over the west Atlantic, passes through
the Florida Panhandle into the north central Gulf of Mexico. A
diffluent flow aloft prevails across the eastern half of the basin
supporting cloudiness and isolated showers mainly east of 88W.
Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
across the eastern half of the basin while light to gentle winds
prevail west of 90W. An exception is an area of moderate to fresh
easterly winds that developed over the Florida Straits. Expect
during the next 24 hours for the next cold front to approach the
northwest Gulf waters enhancing convection/winds. The front will
weaken quickly after that. Surface ridging will prevail across the
remainder of the basin through the next couple of days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the east Caribbean from 18N68W to
12N69W. This trough is related to a surface low that will develop
within the next few hours north of La Mona Passage. An upper-level
trough extends along 75W, keeping a diffluent flow over the
eastern Caribbean mainly east of 70W. With this, scattered
moderate convection prevails across this area. Fair weather
prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate northerly winds west of 68W while
moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail east of 68W. The
exception is over the waters south of Cuba north of 19N between
73W-85W where moderate to fresh northerly winds developed. The
surface trough will weaken during the next 24 hours as a surface
low develops just north of La Mona Passage. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

SW wind flow at all levels is moving across the island.
Scattered light to moderate convection are possible inland and in
the coastal waters as a surface low develops just northeast of
the island. Similar activity will prevail through the next couple
of days. The constant rainfall could generate flooding and
mudslides mainly across the northeast portion of the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends across the west Atlantic anchored by a
1032 mb high centered near 34N64W. To the southeast, a surface
trough extends from 25N65W to 18N68W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails from 21N-30N between 60W-72W. A surface low
will develop along this trough within the next few hours. The
pressure gradient in this area will support gale-force winds from
24N-26N between 64W-69W. Please refer to the section above for
details. A cold front enters the central Atlantic from 31N43W to
24N54W then a shear line continues from 24N55W to 21N66W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Expect for the
cold front to continue moving east while weakening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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