[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, crossing
the Equator along 23W, to 03S30W, to 04S38W near the coast of
Brazil. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 05N southward between the Prime Meridian and the coast
of Brazil.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level NW wind flow is moving across the open
waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
also is present in water vapor imagery, in the entire area. An
upper level ridge passes through East Texas to interior sections
of south central Mexico.

A deep layer trough is in the western Atlantic Ocean, passing
through Bermuda, to 27N71W, across the SE Bahamas and SE Cuba,
into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea near 19N80W, to interior
sections of Nicaragua. A cold front passes through 32N56W to
27N70W, across the NW Bahamas and Andros Island to SE Florida near
25N80W, and curving to 26N82W in the Gulf of Mexico. A dissipating
stationary front continues from 26N82W to 28N85W, and to 30N82W
off the coast of SE Louisiana. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from the northern coast of Cuba to 26N between 76W and
82W in the Straits of Florida. Other rainshowers are possible to
the NW of the line that passes through 32N58W 25N66W 23N80W.

A surface ridge is along 27N88W 24N91W, into the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVBS, KGBK, KEHC, KVOA, and KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Edinburg and Harlingen, Hebbronville, at the
Houston Hobby Airport, and in Pearland, and from the Houston
IAH airport to Tomball, to Conroe. LOUISIANA: MVFR in parts of
the SW and S central coastal plains. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR from
Natchez southward. ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: light rain in Milton.
MVFR in parts of the St. Petersburg metropolitan area. light rain
in Marathon Key. MVFR at the Key West International Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow is to the east of the line that runs
from the Windward Passage to NE coastal Nicaragua. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the west of the
same Windward Passage-to-NE Nicaragua line.

Rainshowers are possible to the N of 16N between 60W and the
Windward Passage, and from Jamaica southward from 77W westward.
This precipitation is possible in scattered to broken low level
clouds. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
precipitation are to the east of the line that runs from the
southern coast of Haiti, to 15N77W, and to the coast of Panama
along 77W.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
24/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.01 in
Guadeloupe, and a trace in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

SW wind flow at all levels is moving across the island.
Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: rain and thunder. Santo Domingo: VFR.
few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: MVFR. ceiling
1600 feet. earlier rain has ended for the moment. Santiago: MVFR.
ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1800
feet.

The GFS MODEL forecasts, for 250 mb and for 500 mb, show that SW
wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A
trough will remain to the west of Hispaniola during the next 48
hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind
flow with a trough will cover the area for the first 30 hours.
Expect SW wind flow during the rest of the 48-hour forecast
period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough remains, from the warm front scenario of 24
hours ago, now along 29N58W 24N63W 19N68W. passes through 32N53W
to 29N60W 25N67W, and to the SE Bahamas near 22N72W. Convective
precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are within 240 nm on either side of 32N50W
27N58W 20N65W.

An upper level trough passes through Morocco, across the Canary
Islands, to a 24N24W cyclonic circulation center, to 09N33W. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite
imagery.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east, and to the west and
northwest of the 32N56W-to-SE Florida cold front. A surface ridge
passes through 32N39W 26N49W 21N50W to 14N50W on the eastern side
of the cold front. A 1036 mb high pressure center is near 38N75W

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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