[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 22/0000 UTC,
consists of: the threat of N near gale or gale in AGADIR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W, to the Equator along 16W. The ITCZ continues from the
Equator along 16W, to 01S20W, 02S26W, 01S35W, and to the coast of
Brazil near 03S42W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from
04N northward to Ghana between the Prime Meridian and 01W, and
from 02N to 04N between the Prime Meridian and 04W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N southward between
10W and 20W. Scattered moderate to strong from 01N southward
between 47W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level NW wind flow is moving across the open
waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence also is present in water vapor imagery, in the entire
area.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
is near 31N78W, across northern sections of Florida, to a Gulf of
Mexico 1023 mb high pressure center that is near 28N88W, to the
coast of Mexico near 21N98W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KBBF, KVQT, and KGHB.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to MISSISSIPPI: VFR. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of Mobile.
FLORIDA: VFR.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow is to the east of the line that runs from
Hispaniola to NE coastal Nicaragua. Upper level W wind flow covers
the Caribbean Sea to the west of the same Hispaniola-to-NE
Nicaragua line.

A surface trough is along 65W/66W from 17N southward. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N to 19N between
60w and 68W.

Rainshowers are possible from 17N southward between 78W and 88W,
including in parts of Central America from Honduras southward, in
areas of scattered to broken low level clouds.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the island. Anticyclonic
wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb also spans Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR.
few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet.
earlier rain has stopped for the moment. La Romana/Punta Cana:
VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. earlier rain stopped about
4 hours ago. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. earlier rain
has stopped for the moment.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area, with a ridge that is forecast to extend from
Colombia-to-07N94W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the
area. Hispaniola will be at to the SE and E of a trough that is
forecast to end up across Cuba at the end of 48 hours. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation
center will be on top of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour
forecast period. The anticyclonic center will move toward the NE
and dissipate. Expect SE and S wind flow at the end of day one.
Expect more SE and S wind flow during the first half of day two.
The forecast period will end with broad anticyclonic wind flow
and a ridge passing across Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N60W 28N62W and 24N66W.
The trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N56W, to
26N60W and 19N70W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes
through 32N53W to 31N53W, to 29N55W and 27N55W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N28W to 23N27W 14N30W and
07N34W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
10N northward between 20W and 50W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east and to the west of
the 32N56W 26N60W 19N70W Atlantic Ocean cold front. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10N northward between
Africa and the cold front. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near
31N78W, to the west of the cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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