[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strengthened pressure gradient will develop across the SW
Caribbean waters by 18/0000 UTC generating near-gale to gale
force east winds across the immediate waters offshore of northern
Colombia through Saturday morning. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N18W to
the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03N-06N between 16W-26W, and within 200 nm north of the ITCZ
mainly west of 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mostly dry and stable air aloft as noted on water vapor imagery
prevails over the Gulf basin. At the surface, overall stability
continues within the southern periphery of a surface ridge anchored
by a 1031 mb high centered across eastern Alabama. A 1029 mb high
developed over the northeast Gulf waters near 30N86W. Moderate to
fresh northeast winds prevail east of 90W while moderate to fresh
easterly winds prevail west of 90W. The surface high in the northeast
Gulf is forecast to shift southeastward to across northern Florida
and portions of the west Atlantic waters with moderate to fresh
easterly winds persisting through Saturday. The next cold front is
expected to skirt the northeast Gulf waters this weekend moving
southward across the Florida peninsula and far eastern waters by
Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level anticyclonic circulation is centered over NW Venezuela
near 09N68W providing much of the basin with southwesterly to
westerly flow aloft. An upper-level trough over the western
Atlantic supports a frontal system that enters the the western
Caribbean as a stationary front from the Windward Passage near
20N74W to the coast of Nicaragua near 15N83W. Isolated showers
are occurring within 100 nm on either side of the front. Moderate
to fresh trades are expected through the overnight hours into
Friday east of the front, while fresh to strong northeast winds
will prevail across the northwest Caribbean west of the front. The
overall pressure gradient supporting these winds is expected to
relax by Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Southwesterly flow aloft over the island in addition to a
stationary front analyzed across the Windward Passage region is
providing for isolated showers across the island and the adjacent
coastal waters. The front is expected to drift very slowly eastward
through Friday night with isolated showers accompanying fresh to
strong northeast winds to the west of the boundary.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal system extends across the western Atlantic analyzed as a
cold front from 31N59W to 23N68W then as a stationary front from
that point into the Windward Passage and west Caribbean. Scattered
showers are observed north of 27N and within 120 nm on either
side of the front. A surface ridge is building in the wake of the
front. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1039 mb high centered near 43N28W. An area
of fresh to strong trades is occurring within the southern
periphery of the ridging generally from 14N-25N between 33W-55W.
This area of stronger winds is expected to weaken within the next
24-36 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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