[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A strengthened pressure gradient will develop across the SW
Caribbean waters by 18/0600 UTC generating near gale to gale
force E-NE winds across the immediate waters offshore of northern
Colombia through Friday night. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N18W to the Equator near 38W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-04N between 04W-08W...and S of 05N between
33W-52W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-08N between
14W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Mostly dry and stable air aloft as noted on water vapor imagery
prevails over the Gulf basin this evening. At the surface...
overall stability continues within the southern periphery of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered across northern
Alabama. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail E of 90W and
moderate to fresh E-SE winds prevail W of 90W. The high is
forecast to shift southeastward to across northern Florida and
portions of the SW North Atlc waters with moderate to fresh E-SE
winds persisting through Saturday. The next cold front is expected
to skirt the NE Gulf waters Saturday night and move southward
across the Florida peninsula and far eastern waters into Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over NW
Venezuela near 09N68W providing much of the Caribbean basin with
southwesterly to westerly flow aloft. This southwesterly flow
over western portions feed NE into an upper level trough over the
western North Atlc in support of a stationary front analyzed from
the Windward Passage region near 20N74W SW to the coast of
Nicaragua near 15N83W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms
are occurring within 120 nm either side of the front. Some of the
low-level moisture and isolated shower activity W of the front
continues to feed across interior portions of northern Nicaragua
and much of Honduras. Otherwise...the only other remaining feature
across the basin is a weak surface trough axis analyzed from
13N70W to 17N68W. Moderate to fresh trades are expected through
the overnight hours into Friday...generally E of the front...while
fresh to strong NE winds will prevail across the NW Caribbean
through the overnight W of the front. The overall pressure
gradient generating these winds is expected to relax by Sunday
afternoon.

...HISPANIOLA...
Southwesterly flow aloft over the island in addition to a
stationary front analyzed across the Windward Passage region to
the NW is providing for isolated to widely scattered showers
across Haiti and the adjacent coastal waters W of 72W this evening.
The front is expected to drift very slowly eastward through
Friday night with isolated to widely scattered showers
accompanying fresh to strong NE winds to the west of the boundary.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Two cold front have merged across the SW North Atlc this afternoon
leaving one cold front analyzed from 32N59W SW to the Turks and
Caicos islands near 22N72W then continues stationary through the
Windward Passage region into the west-central Caribbean Sea.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 24N within
120 nm either side of the front...and within 90 nm either side of
the remainder of the front S of 24N. High pressure anchored across
northern Alabama is expected to continue building eastward through
Friday night. Farther east...the remainder of the central and
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by
a 1038 mb high centered N-NW of the Azores near 42N32W. An area of
fresh to strong trades is occurring within the southern periphery
of the ridging generally from 14N-25N between 33W-55W. This area
of stronger winds is expected to weaken by Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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