[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Nor'easter Low is developing north of our area over the west
Atlantic with a cold front extending south from the low to 31N79W
to 30N81W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
prevail along and east of the front and low. The tight pressure
gradient east of the front is producing gale- force southeast
winds over the west Atlantic waters north of 30N between 72W-78W.
These conditions will continue through Tuesday night. See the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 02N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from
02N20W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-05N between 14W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 mb surface low is centered over the northeast Gulf of
Mexico near 29N84W. A cold front extends southwest from the low to
19N92W. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are observed
in radar imagery currently affecting the eastern Gulf waters east
of mainly east of 84W and Florida Peninsula. A surface ridge is
building in the wake of the front, with a 1021 mb high centered
over southern Texas. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
northerly winds prevailing across most of the basin while
gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the front
south of 25N east of 83W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the
surface low to move northeast to the South Carolina coast and
dissipate along a cold front. The cold front will continue moving
southeast over the Florida Peninsula and across the far east Gulf
waters then entering the western Caribbean and west Atlantic with
convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 mb surface low is centered over north Colombia near
08N75W. With this, the pressure gradient is enough to support
fresh to strong easterly winds mainly south of 13N between 73W-76W
as noted in scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
elsewhere. These winds are transporting low-level moisture across
the basin which is enhancing isolated quick-moving showers across
the area. In the upper levels, ridging is over the Caribbean axis
along 65W. Strong subsidence is over the Caribbean Sea, except
over the NW Caribbean where upper-level moisture is noted. Expect
in 24 hours for the tail end of a cold front to enter the west
Caribbean with convection. This front will continue moving east
across the east and central Caribbean through the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are observed across the island at this time.
Expect through the next 48 hours for convection to increase from
the west as a cold front approaches.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail end of a cold front extends from 31N79W to 30N81W. The
pressure gradient east of this front is strong enough to support
gale-force winds north of 30N between 72W-78W. Please refer to the
section above for details. A frontal system extends across the
central Atlantic, analyzed as a cold front from 32N49W to 26N59W
then as a stationary front from that point to 27N67W. Isolated
showers are observed along the northern portion of the cold front
north of 27N. A surface trough extends from 27N35W to 20N32W.
To the east, near-gale to gale-force winds are along the coast of
Morocco and between the Canary Islands due to a very tight
surface pressure gradient in the area. Expect during the next 24
hours for the west Atlantic cold front to continue moving east
with convection. The central Atlantic frontal system will
dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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