[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tight pressure gradient between a low off the coast of South
Carolina and a high off the New Jersey coast will produce near
gale to gale force SE winds over the SW North Atlc waters N of
30N between 68W-73W Monday evening, continuing until Tuesday
morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
08N13W to 04N17W to 04N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 04N24W to 00N40W to the coast of South America
near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 01N-06N E of 12W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-
05N between 15W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A quasi-stationary front extends from central Florida near
28N81W to a 1013 mb low over the NW Gulf of Mexico 26N92W to S
Texas near 26N97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 120 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the Bay
of Campeche from 23N93W to 19N93W producing a wind shift. 15-20
kt NE winds are N of the front. 10 kt SE to S winds are S of the
front. In the upper levels, slight ridging is over the Gulf with
axis along 80W. Upper air moisture is over most of the Gulf.
Expect in 24 hours for the low to move to SE Louisiana. Expect a
cold front to extend SW of the low to the Bay of Campeche near
20N97W. Also expect a warm front to extend E of the low to S
Georgia. Moderate convection will be over the E Gulf of Mexico
E of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N74W. 15-25 kt
tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the higher elevations
of Cuba, N Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. In the upper
levels, ridging is over the Caribbean with strong subsidence.
Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Expect little change over
the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W to central
Florida at 28N81W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the



 The low and cold front will stall through Monday night and then
will transition back to a cold front that will move across the
Bahamas through Wednesday. The second front is forecast to move
eastward and eventually become diffuse across the central Atlc
waters between 50W-60W by Monday. Otherwise, surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the central Atlc and much of
the eastern waters anchored by a 1037 mb high centered NE of the
Azores. Embedded within the southeastern periphery of the
ridge...a surface trough is analyzed from 29N30W to 24N25W
supported aloft by a mid-level low centered near 28N27W. No
significant convection is occurring with the trough...however
strong to near gale force NE winds are noted on earlier ASCAT
data N of 26N between 19W-27W.
front. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N54W to
27N60W to 26N72W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this
front. A 1037 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
42N20W. A ridge axis extends SW from the high to 28N50W. Of note
in the upper levels, the base of a longwave upper level trough
is over the W Atlantic N of 28N supporting a cold front. Another
upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 25N between
50W-65W supporting the other cold front. A third upper level
trough is over the E Atlantic N of 20N between 20W-35W. Expect
in 24 hours for the W Atlantic cold front to lift NE out of the
area, while the Central Atlantic front moves E to 31N51W with
showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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