[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111726
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near
07N12W to 03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 03N20W to 00N37W to the coast of South America near
02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N between
14W-27W, and from 03S-01N between 44W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from S Florida near 27N80W to 27N87W to SE
Texas near 30N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are over the NW Gulf of Mexico N of 25N and W of 89W. A surface
trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N95W to 17N93W
producing a wind shift. 15 kt NE winds are N of the front over
the NE Gulf. 10-15 kt SE winds are over the remainder of the
Gulf. In the upper levels, slight ridging is over the Gulf with
axis along 90W. Upper air moisture is over the NW Gulf and
subsidence is elsewhere. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front
to dissipate over the Gulf, while a new cold front will extend
from S Louisiana to S Texas with convection and 25 kt NE winds
NW of front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N75W. 15-25 kt
tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Gulf of Honduras,
Honduras, and Guatemala. In the upper levels, slight ridging is
over the Caribbean with strong subsidence. Expect little change
over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Expect little change over
the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N66W to 27N75W to S
Florida near 27N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
front. A 1030 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
33N38W. A ridge axis extends SW from the high to 25N60W. Of note
in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W
Atlantic supporting the cold front. An upper level low is also
over the E Atlantic near 28N23W producing scattered showers.
Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to reach 31N56W to 26N61W
to the central Bahamas with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA
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