[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100427
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1127 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A strong pressure gradient will remain in place across the SW
Caribbean Sea off the coast of Colombia through the morning hours
on Friday. Thereafter...winds are expected to diminish below gale
force as the pressure gradient relaxes. See the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 06N11W
to 04N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N16W to 03N23W to 01N30W to the Equator near 41W then along the
Equator to 50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-04N
between 19W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between
34W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
While upper level ridging prevails over much of the Gulf basin
this evening...mid-level energy embedded within weak troughing
over the Rio Grande river valley is supporting a surface trough
extending from 20N95W to 24N96W to 26N96W. The surface trough and
mid-level shortwave trough is generating scattered showers and
isolated tstms N of 23N W of 90W...and from 20N-23N between 93W-
96W in the vicinity of the surface trough axis. Otherwise...the
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1022 mb high centered in the NE Gulf near 28N85W.
Mostly moderate E-SE winds are expected through the overnight
period into Friday. The next weak frontal boundary is forecast to
skirt the north-central and NE Gulf waters Friday night increasing
winds out of the N-NE briefly into moderate to fresh breeze levels
through Saturday morning. High pressure will then once again
influence the basin through the remainder of the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Aside from the near gale to gale force conditions expected through
the early morning hours on Friday off the coast of Colombia...two
features continue to impact the basin. A surface trough is
analyzed from western Nicaragua near 13N87W to 19N84W providing
focus for isolated to widely scattered low-topped showers
remaining generally S of 19N between 81W-88W...including interior
portions of northern Nicaragua and much of Honduras. Farther
east...a shear line extends from the central Atlc to the Lesser
Antilles near Dominica then E to 15N71W. Fresh to strong E winds
are occurring N of the shear line in addition to isolated showers.
Elsewhere moderate to fresh trades prevail and are expected to
persist through Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Most isolated shower activity lies within the adjacent coastal
waters S of the island in the vicinity of a shear line extending
along 15N/16N E of 72W. Otherwise...skies through the overnight
hours into Friday are expected to be mostly clear with only a
slight possibility of a passing isolated shower.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 31N73W that supports a weakening
stationary front from 32N70W to 29N78W. It continues dissipating
within the influence of two ridges...one anchored by a 1022 mb
high centered across the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N85W and the
other a 1029 mb high centered near 29N50W. The stronger ridge to
the east across the central Atlc prevails across much of the
area...however a shear line extends along 15N/16N W of 43W on the
southern periphery of the ridge. Aside from fresh to strong E-NE
winds occurring generally S of 22N between 35W-62W...isolated
showers are noted within 150 nm either side of the shear line
axis. Farther east...a middle to upper level low is centered near
28N32W and supports a cold front analyzed from 32N22W SW to 23N30W
to 19N37W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from
23N-34N between 20W-33W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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