[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 AM EST Thu Mar 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The conditions starting at 09/0600 UTC: NE-to-E gale-force winds,
and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, in the coastal
waters of Colombia, from 11N to 14N between 73W and 77W. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N16W. The ITCZ continues from 09N16W, to
05N17W 03N24W 01N34W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate
to locally strong from 06N southward from 54W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough has moved into the Atlantic Ocean, along the
U.S.A. East Coast. The cyclonic wind flow that is associated with
the trough is to the north of 32N. Upper level anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 56W westward. A cold front
passes through 32N77W to 30N81W. The front becomes stationary from
30N81W, across Florida, to 29N84W in the Gulf of Mexico, to
27N90W, and to the Texas coast near 27N97W. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate to the NW of the line that passes
through 32N66W 27N80W 27N90W. in the Gulf of Mexico: Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 28N southward from 90W
westward. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 22N96W 20N95W 18N93W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KBQX.

IFR: KXIH.

MVFR: KMZG, KBBF, KXIH, KGUL, KHQI, KEHC, KVQT, KGRY,
and KDLP

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR/IFR from the Deep South northward, including in
the Houston metropolitan area and surrounding smaller
communities, to the upper Texas Gulf coast. LOUISIANA:
MVFR from Baton Rouge southward. LIFR in Galliano. MISSISSIPPI
VFR. ALABAMA: MVFR in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: IFR in Apalachicola.
LIFR in Perry, Cross City, and Brooksville, to parts of the
Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
Nicaragua eastward. Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow
covers the area that is from 80W eastward. Middle level-to-upper
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from Jamaica
northward from Hispaniola westward. NE wind flow from 600 mb to
800 mb is from 70W eastward. NE-to-E wind flow from 600 mb to 800
mb is from Jamaica southward from 70W westward.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
across much of the area, including moving across parts of Central
America from Honduras southward, except from 12N southward from
80W eastward.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 09/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.35 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving
across Hispaniola. NE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is moving
across the area. Rainshowers are possible inland and in the
coastal waters. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo/La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana:
MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1500 feet. Puerto
Plata: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
become W, and then NW, during the first 18 hours or so, of the
48-hour forecast period. NW wind flow will continue until the end
of day two. A ridge will extend from Colombia to 06N96W in the
Eastern Pacific Ocean at the beginning of day one, and from
Colombia to 09N97W in the Eastern Pacific Ocean at the end of the
48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows
that the anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area during
day one. An anticyclonic circulation center will start on top of
the SE Bahamas. The anticyclonic circulation center will move
eastward and then southeastward, dissipating about 100 nm to the
ENE of Puerto Rico. Day two will start with southerly wind flow
across the area, becoming SW wind flow for the rest of the time.
 The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will
move across the area at the start of the 48-hour forecast period.
An inverted trough will give cyclonic wind flow across Hispaniola
for the rest of day one. Expect SE wind flow for day two. An anti-
cyclonic circulation center will be about 90 nm to the E of Puerto
Rico at the start of day two. The anticyclonic circulation center
will end up about 90 nm to the N of the Mona Passage by the end of
the 48-hour forecast period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Deep layer cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area
from 20N northward between 23W and 56W. A cold front passes
through 32N31W to 22N40W and 20N47W. The front is stationary from
20N47W to 16N60W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible to the north and northwest of the line that passes
through 32N27W to 20N30W 15N50W and 13N60W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is between
the 32N31W-16N60W frontal boundary and the western Atlantic Ocean
frontal boundary that passes through 32N76W to Florida. A 1030 mb
high pressure center is near 31N56W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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