[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warnings...

A strong pressure gradient generated between the high pressure
centered over the west Atlantic near 34N62W and lower pressure
analyzed across northwestern South America will support near-
gale to gale-force winds along the coast of N Colombia, each
night and early morning, through Friday morning. Gale force
winds are presently from 10N-12N between 72W-77W with NE to E
winds 30-35 KT, and seas 11-13 FT. This gale is forecast to go
below gale criteria shortly. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to
03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N20W to 00N30W to the coast of South America near 03S44W.
Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm of the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N83W to
the North Central Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W to S Texas near
26N98W. 15 kt NE winds are N of the front. 10-20 kt E winds are
over the remainder of the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm N of the front. A surface trough is over the Bay of
Campeche from 22N96W to 18N96W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm of the trough. In the upper levels, the base of a
large upper level trough is over the N Gulf supporting the cold
front. A very small upper level low is centered over the Bay of
Campeche near 20N95W supporting the surface trough. Expect over
the next 24 hours for the front to move E into the W Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Near-gale to gale-force winds are over the N coast of Colombia.
See above. 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the
Caribbean. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and E Cuba. More scattered
showers are over the southern Windward Islands and the the coast
of Venezuela. Additional showers are over N Colombia, Panama,
Costa Rico, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. In the upper
levels dry and stable air aloft prevails across the basin.
Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are mostly over Hispaniola due to
low level moisture moving W with the tradewind flow. Expect more
showers over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1033 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 34N62W. A cold front
is over the central Atlantic from 31N34W to 25N40W to 17N58W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. In the upper
levels, a ridge is over the W Atlantic. The base of a large
upper level trough is over the central Atlantic between 30W-60W.
A small upper level low is centered over the Canary Islands near
30N15W producing showers. Expect the central Atlantic front to
move E to 31N29W over the next 24 hours with showers. Also
expect in 24 hours for a new cold front to be over the W
Atlantic extending from 31N75W to Central Florida near
29N81W, with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA
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