[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Wed Mar 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The conditions starting at 08/0000 UTC: NE-to-E gale-force winds,
and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, in the coastal
waters of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

A second area of gale-force winds is in the Caribbean Sea, from
15N to 18N between 68W and 74W. Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds,
and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 14 feet. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N12W, to 04N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N17W to 02N23W and 03N30W, crossing the Equator
along 41W, to coastal Brazil near 01S46W. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong from 06N
southward from 52W eastward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 10N southward between 30W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through SE Louisiana, to the middle Texas
coastal plains, and into northern Mexico. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 29N northward
between 87W and 90W. An upper level trough is moving through
central sections of the U.S.A.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KVQT, KGRY, and KMIS.

IFR: KMZG and KBBF.

MVFR: KBQX, KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KHQI, KEHC, KGHB, KEIR,
KSPR, KATP, KMDJ, KIKT, KVOA, KVKY, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR/IFR/MVFR/IFR from the Lower Valley to Victoria/Port
Lavaca/Palacios. light rain only in the middle Texas Gulf coastal
areas, and mainly stopped at the moment, ending a few hours ago.
LOUISIANA: IFR in Patterson. rainshowers, some heavy at times, and
MVFR, in Galliano and Boothville. LIFR in Slidell. light rain has
ended for the moment around the southern sections of Lake
Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in parts of the Hattiesburg
metropolitan area. ALABAMA: moderate rain in Gulf Shores. IFR in
Evergreen. LIFR and light rain in Ft. Rucker. Moderate rain in
Dothan. FLORIDA: MVFR and moderate rain in the Pensacola area.
rain from Marianna westward and southwestward. MVFR in Naples.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level NW wind flow moves through the NW corner of the area,
into the central sections. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the area to the east of the line that runs from the SE
coast of Nicaragua to SW Haiti. NE wind flow from 600 mb to 800
mb covers the area that is to the east of 70W, from 14N northward
between 70W and 80W, and from 14N southward from 80W westward.
SE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is in the NW corner of the
area.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
across much of the area,, mainly to the north and northwest of
the line that passes through 15N59W, to 13N74W and 12N83W in the
Caribbean Sea, and beyond, into interior sections of Nicaragua and
Honduras.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 07/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.13 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level NW-to-W wind flow is moving across
Hispaniola. E-to-SE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is moving
across the area. Rainshowers are possible inland and in the
coastal waters. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet at each location. Santiago: VFR.
Puerto Plata: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during day one, followed by W wind flow
during day two, of the 48-hour forecast period. A ridge will
extend from Colombia to 07N90W in the Eastern Pacific Ocean at the
beginning of day one, and from Colombia to 12N97W in the Eastern
Pacific Ocean at the end of the 48-hour forecast period.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that the anticyclonic
wind flow will move across the area with a ridge. The ridge will
move to the south of Hispaniola, giving NE wind flow to
Hispaniola. An anticyclonic circulation center will be on top of
the SE Bahamas at the end of day one. The anticyclonic circulation
center will move eastward, to the Virgin Islands at the end of
the 48-hour forecast period. Expect anticyclonic wind flow across
Hispaniola during the next few days. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that anti-cyclonic wind flow cover the area for the
first 12 hours, followed by NE wind flow until the end of day one.
Day two will start with NE wind flow, followed by an inverted
trough for the next 18 hours or so. The inverted trough is forecast
to move westward, pushing SE wind flow across Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Deep layer cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area
from 20N northward from 40W westward. A cold front passes through
32N35W to 27N40W 21N50W and 18N55W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible to the north and northwest of the line
that passes through 32N34W to 25N40W and 15N59W, to 13N74W and
12N83W in the Caribbean Sea, and beyond, into interior sections of
Nicaragua and Honduras.

An upper level trough extends from a 27N19W cyclonic circulation
center, to 20N28W and 12N36W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N25W to 25N34W 20N40W and
17N54W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
and the Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward between the 32N35W-to-
18N55W cold front and the SE coast of the U.S.A. A 1033 mb high
pressure center is near 34N67W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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