[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061148
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The conditions starting at 06/0600 UTC: NE-to-E gale-force winds,
and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet, in the coastal
waters of Colombia, from 10.5N to 13N between 73W and 77W. ALSO:
NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11
feet, to the N of 18N between 73W and 76W, including in the
Windward Passage. NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights
ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, to the N of 16N between 70W and
73W. NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10
feet to 13 feet, to the N of 19N between 78W and 83W. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The conditions starting at 06/0600 UTC: A cold front is along
31N45W 27N50W 18N63W. NE-to-E gale-force winds and sea heights
ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, to the W of a line from 25N80W to
21N69W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The conditions starting at 06/0600 UTC: E gale-force winds, and
sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 23N to 25N to
the E of 85W, including in the Straits of Florida. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 05N14W 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W
to 01N30W, and to the Equator along 41W. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong from 07N
southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level to upper level trough is moving from the east
central sections of the Gulf of Mexico to Florida. Scattered to
broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 90W
eastward.

A surface ridge extends from north central Florida into
the SW corner of the area.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KMZG and KGRY.

MVFR: KBBF, KBQX, KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KGUL, KHQI, KEHC, KVQT, KGHB,
KATP, KEIR, KMDJ, and KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR/MVFR in the Lower Valley/the Deep South, and in
Rockport. IFR/LIFR from Laredo into the middle Texas coastal
plains. light rain in Victoria. IFR/MVFR from Victoria to Port
Lavaca to Palacios. IFR/MVFR from Bay City to the Houston
metropolitan area and surrounding smaller communities, to
Huntsville. MVFR from Beaumont/Port Arthur to Jasper and light
rain. LOUISIANA: MVFR from Baton Rouge southward and
southwestward. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in Natchez. ALABAMA: VFR.
FLORIDA: MVFR in Valparaiso.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow covers the area to the east of the line
that runs from the SE coast of Nicaragua to SW Haiti. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across the area that is to
the west of the aforementioned Nicaragua-to-Haiti line. NE wind
flow from 600 mb to 800 mb spans the entire area.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
mainly from 70W eastward, and from 15N northward from 70W
westward.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 06/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.20 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

NE-to-E wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is moving across the
area. NE wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb approaches the NE corner
of Hispaniola. NW wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb moves across
Cuba toward Haiti. Rainshowers are possible inland and in the
coastal waters. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. earlier light rain in Santo
Domingo ended an hour ago. Santiago: moderate rain. MVFR. ceiling
1200 feet. Puerto Plato: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours, with a ridge from
the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea toward the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that the
wind flow will be from the NW, first with a W-to-E oriented ridge,
and then later just with NW wind flow, for the rest of day one.
Expect more NW wind flow for the first 12 to 18 hours of day two.
Expect anticyclonic wind flow during the last 6 hours to 12 hours
of day two, with an Atlantic Ocean to Hispaniola E-to-W oriented
ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an
anticyclonic circulation center moves from a position that is just
to the E of the SE Bahamas to a position that is to the NE of
Puerto Rico during the first 24 hours of the 48=hour forecast
period. Expect NE to E to SE wind flow during day one. The
anticyclonic circulation re-organizes itself and it remains quasi-
stationary to the north of the Mona Passage for the first 12 to 18
hours or so of day two. Expect anticyclonic wind flow across
Hispaniola during this time. Expect NE wind flow for the last half
of day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Deep layer cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area
from 20N northward from 40W westward. A cold front passes through
32N44W to 27N50W 21N60W, across Hispaniola, to 19N77W between
SE Cuba and Jamaica. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible to the north and northwest of the line that passes
through 32N40W to 25N50W, to 16N63W in the Caribbean Sea, and
to 15N83W.

An upper level trough extends from a 25N25W cyclonic circulation
center, to 15N39W and 10N40W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 20N to 30N between 20W and 30W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N28W to 24N39W and 20N56W. A
second surface ridge is along 23N61W 28N71W beyond 32N75W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net