[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The conditions starting at 05/0600 UTC: Expect for the next 12
hours or so, NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10
feet to 14 feet, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from 09.5N to
13N between 74W and 78W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The conditions starting at 05/0600 UTC: NE-to-E gale-force winds,
and sea heights building to 8 feet, from 23N to 25N to the W of
75W. These conditions are forecast to last for the next 24 hours
or so. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The current conditions starting at 05/0600 UTC: from 23.5N to
24.5N E of 84W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...NE-to-E gale-
force winds, and sea heights building to 8 to 11 feet. Gale-
force winds are forecast to continue for the next 24 hours or so.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 03N16W and 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from
02N22W, to the Equator along 30W, to 01N34W and 01N40W.
Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 02N southward
between 04W and 11W, and from 03N southward between 14W and 18W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 05N southward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An anticyclonic circulation center is along the NW corner of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind
flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from a
1021 mb low pressure center that is near 26N99W along the
Texas/Mexico border, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Gulf of Mexico, away from the stationary front. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
23N northward from 92W westward.

Surface high pressure extends from the central coastal plains of
Mexico into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-
force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern
Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read theEastern
Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the
Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20
KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KBBF and KHQI.

MVFR: KMZG, KBQX, KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KGUL, KVQT, and KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR/IFR/MVFR and rain ending/continuing in the Lower
Valley/the Deep South, and in the middle Texas Gulf coastal
plains. rain and thunder from Victoria to Palacios. MVFR and light
rain from Beaumont/Port Arthur to Jasper. IFR/MVFR and light rain
from the Houston metropolitan area to Huntsville. LOUISIANA: light
rain in the SW corner of the state. MISSISSIPPI: light rain in the
Hattiesburg metropolitan area has ended for the moment. ALABAMA:
VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR in the Pensacola metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across the area that
is to the east of the line that runs from the NE coast of Nicaragua
to the Windward Passage. NE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb spans
the entire area. Anticyclonic wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb
covers the area that is to the west of the line from the NE coast
of Nicaragua to the Windward Passage.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
across much of the area.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 05/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.02 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

NE wind flow from 350 mb to 800 mb is moving across the area.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana:
VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet. Puerto Plato: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours, with a NW-to-SE
oriented ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that the
wind flow will be from the NE, the N, and finally from the NW
during day one, in a W-to-E oriented ridge from the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea to Hispaniola. A mixture of NW wind flow and
broad anticyclonic wind flow will move across Hispaniola during
day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow
will move across the area, with a Gulf of Mexico-to-Caribbean Sea
ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving on top of the area of a
stationary front, that passes through 32N50W to 27N60W 24N70W,
to 21N78W in Cuba. A surface trough continues from Cuba to 20N84W
in the Caribbean Sea. A cold front follows the stationary front,
to the NW of it, passing through 32N52W, to 29N60W 26N73W 27N79W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 120 nm on
either side of the line that passes through 32N50W to 26N60W,
23N70W 22N84W.

An upper level trough/shear axis is along 32N24W, to a 24N28W
cyclonic circulation center, and continuing to 20N33W 16N40W
14N46W and 14N55W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from
the 32N50W-to-Cuba stationary front, eastward. A 1026 mb high
pressure center is near 32N28W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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