[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

A strong pressure gradient between the high pressure anchored
across the eastern CONUS and lower pressure analyzed across
northwestern South America is forecast to enhance winds to pulse
to gale-force each night and early morning within about 90 nm of
the northwest coast of Colombia. These conditions will continue
through Wednesday night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Atlantic/GOM Gale Warning...

A cold front is moving across the northwest Caribbean and western
Atlantic. With a strong high pressure building in the wake of the
front, gale-force winds are expected to develop across the
Florida Straits by Sunday morning. These conditions will continue
through early Monday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
00N28W. The ITCZ extends from 00N28W to 02S42W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails within 200 nm south of the Monsoon
Trough between 07W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the majority of the basin, anchored
by a 1027 mb high centered over the southeast CONUS. To the west,
a 1023 mb surface low is centered over northeast Mexico extending
a stationary front from the low to 25N98W to 18N94W. Isolated
showers are observed along the front. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh easterly winds across most of the basin except
west of the front over the Bay of Campeche where fresh northerly
winds prevail. Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected to
continue across much of the Gulf through Sunday, then gradually
shift to the southeast by Sunday morning as the surface high moves
eastward into the western Atlantic region. Gale force winds are
expected to develop across the Florida Straits by Sunday morning.
Please refer to the section above for details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak frontal boundary extends across the northwest Caribbean,
analyzed as a dissipating cold front from 20N85W to 21N80W.
Cloudiness and isolated showers are expected along and northwest
of this boundary. Gale-force winds are expected to develop each
night across the south-central Caribbean waters south of 14N
between 72W-79W. Please refer to the section above for details.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
remainder of the basin. These winds are transporting enough low-
level moisture to enhance scattered showers mainly across the
northern portion of the basin affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Jamaica. Little change is expected
through the next few days.

...HISPANIOLA...

Water vapor imagery depicts strong subsidence over the island
with west-southwesterly flow aloft. Low-level moisture
transported by trade wind flow is supporting isolated showers this
afternoon across the island and adjacent coastal waters. The
remnant energy from a dissipated cold front is expected to reach
the island by Sunday. Northeast winds are expected to increase to
fresh to occasional strong breeze levels during the day on Sunday
and persist through Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N62W to
29N78W. Another cold front extends from 31N53W to 22N78W. This
second front is enhancing winds/seas/convection across the
northern coast of Cuba and the Bahamas at this time, with
altimeter data showing sea heights ranging between 10-13 ft across
the Florida Straits. These conditions will prevail at least through
the next 24 hours, and coastal flooding is possible across the
northern coast of Cuba and some the southern Bahamas. Gale-force
winds are expected to develop across the Florida Straits by Sunday
morning. Please refer to the section above for details. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad surface
ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 30N33W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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