[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The conditions starting at 04/0000 UTC: Expect for the next 12
hours or so, NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 12 feet to 18 feet, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from
10.5N to 13N between 73W and 77W. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast
for the area: AGADIR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N12W to 05N15W and 04N19W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N19W to the Equator along 32W, to 01S36W,
crossing the Equator again along 42W, to the Equator along 49W.
Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 02N
southward between 07W and 10W. scattered strong within 60 nm to
120 nm on either side of 06N10W 04N19W 03N24W. Isolated moderate
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level-to-upper level W wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico
from 27N northward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
rest of the Gulf of Mexico, from the SW corner of the area
eastward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 25N northward. Upper level SW wind flow is moving
through the Atlantic Ocean, on top of the area of a cold front
that passes through 32N60W, to Andros Island in the Bahamas, to NW
Cuba, to 22N87W in the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front
continues from 22N87W to a 1021 mb low pressure center that is
near 22N97W. The stationary front continues from the 1021 mb low
pressure center to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Convective precipitation: weakening and dissipating precipitation
from 20N to 26N between 90W and the coast of Mexico. Scattered
moderate in the Atlantic Ocean from 31N northward between 57W
and 65W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean
to the NW of the line that passes through 32N56W to 24N75W. Broken
low level to middle level clouds are in the Gulf of Mexico to the
south of 29N93W 26N90W 26N82W.

Surface high pressure passes through the deep south of Texas,
through the coastal plains of Mexico, between the coast and
100W, toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read
theEastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KBBF.

MVFR: KGHB and KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain in Port Lavaca. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across the area that
is to the east of the line that runs from the central coast of
Nicaragua to SE Cuba.

Rainshowers are possible across the Caribbean Sea, in areas of
broken low level clouds mostly from 76W eastward, and from
Jamaica southwestward to interior sections of Central America from
Nicaragua to Guatemala and Belize.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 04/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.15 in Guadeloupe and 0.04
in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area. SE wind flow
from 350 mb to 500 mb. NE-to-E wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is
moving across the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana: VFR.
Punta Cana: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that the wind flow will be from the SE,
followed by an inverted trough, and then from the NE. A ridge that
will extend from the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico to Hispaniola
will push the inverted trough eastward and out of the area. Expect
NE wind flow for the last half of day one and the first half of day
two. The 48-hour forecast period will end with NW wind flow moving
across the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that
cyclonic wind flow will be moving across the area from an inverted
trough, for the first 18 hours or so. The inverted trough will be
pushed to the east of Hispaniola. Expect NW wind flow during the
rest of the 48-hour forecast period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough/shear axis passes through Morocco near
32N07W, to 23N32W 18N46W and 15N60W. The frontal boundary that was
being associated with this feature during the last few days has
weakened and dissipated.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from
the 32N60W-to-Andros Island in the Bahamas cold front, eastward.
A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 32N34W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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