[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Current conditions: Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea
heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, in the coastal waters of
Colombia, from 10N to 13N between 74W and 77W. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The 18-hour forecast consists of a cold front from 29N83W to
22N94W to 18N94W. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights
reaching 11 feet, from 22N to 24N to the W of 97W. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to
01N25W, to the Equator along 32W, to 02S40W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
05N southward between 40W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong from 07N southward from 40W eastward. Rainshowers are
possible from 11N southward between 50W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic circulation center is
in the SW corner of the area. Large-scale anticyclonic wind flow
spans the entire area.

A cold front is in the NW corner of the area, passing through SE
Louisiana, across the Gulf of Mexico, to the deep south of Texas.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate in the NE Mexico
coastal plains from 25N to 26N between 97W and 98W.

A surface ridge passes through the NW Bahamas, across central
Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico near 26N91W, to the Mexico coast
near 21N97W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KSPR, KGRY, KIKT, KVOA, and KMIS.

MVFR: KHHV, KGUL, KVQT, KGHB, KATP, KMDJ, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: VFR. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Port Fourchon. Light rain in
Boothville. MISSISSIPPI: VFR. light rain ended for the moment in
Pascagoula. ALABAMA: light rain in parts of the Mobile
metropolitan area, in Fort Rucker, and in Dothan. FLORIDA: light
rain from Pensacola to Milton. Rain in Mary Esther and Valparaiso.
Rain has ended for the moment in Crestview. LIFR/IFR in the Panama
City metropolitan area. MVFR in Marianna. LIFR in Apalachicola.
MVFR in Tallahassee and Perry. LIFR in Cross City. MVFR in
Brooksville and at the Tampa Executive Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE-to-E middle level-to-upper level wind flow is moving through
the Caribbean Sea. E wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb covers the
area that is from 13N northward. NE wind flow from 600 mb to 800
mb is in the SW corner of the area.

Rainshowers are possible across the Caribbean Sea, in areas of
broken low level clouds, mostly to the east of the line from the
central coastal sections of Honduras to central Cuba.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 02/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.24 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

NE wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb is moving across the area. SE
wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb also is moving across Hispaniola.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling
1600 feet. La Romana: light rain and MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NE wind flow will
move across the area for the first 12 hours or so. Hispaniola will
be in the middle of a NE-to-SW oriented trough that will be
cutting across Puerto Rico, and a ridge that will be on top of
Cuba and the Bahamas. An anticyclonic circulation center will
develop near SE Cuba at 12 hours to 18 hours into the 48-hour
forecast period. The anticyclonic circulation center will move
to the northern coastal waters of Hispaniola by 18 hours. The
anticyclonic circulation center will dissipate, and open into
a ridge across the Mona Passage at the end of day one. Expect
NW and W wind across Hispaniola during day two.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow will
move across Hispaniola during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-
Cuba ridge. Day two will consist of E and SE wind flow, and then
broad anticyclonic wind flow right at the end.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist
of SE wind flow for about the first 12 hours or so, followed by
broad anticyclonic wind flow for the rest of the time. Day two
will consist of an inverted trough across Hispaniola. Expect
broad cyclonic wind flow with the trough.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N37W to 25N42W 20N49W and
17N58W. A cold front passes through 32N33W to 28N39W. The cold
front is dissipating from 28N39W to 24N46W. Convective
precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate to the
northwest of the line that passes through 32N30W to 26N44W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N18W to 25N27W 20N40W
17N50W and 15N59W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 10N northward from 20W westward.

A surface ridge passes through 32N25W to 28N31W and 23N43W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N55W to 30N69W, to 27N77W near
the NW Bahamas, across central Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico
near 26N91W, to the Mexico coast near 21N97W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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