[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10
feet to 13 feet, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from 10N to
12N between 74W and 77W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to
the Equator along 22W, to 03S30W, to 03S38W. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 0.5N to 01.5S between 04W
and 08W, and from 03N southward from 40W westward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 06N southward from 40W
eastward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward
between 40W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
entire area.

A surface ridge passes through Bermuda to 30N75W, across Florida,
into the Gulf of Mexico near 28N86W, toward the lower Texas coast
of the Gulf of Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KVAF, KGRY, and KVOA.

MVFR: KXIH, KHHV, KEMK, KGUL, KEHC, KHQI, KGHB, KEIR, KSPR, KATP,
KMDJ, KIKT, KVOA, KVKY, KMIS, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in the deep south. IFR/MVFR in the middle coastal
plains. MVFR/IFR from the Houston metropolitan area and
surrounding smaller communities, including to the upper Texas Gulf
coastal plains. LOUISIANA: IFR some/mostly MVFR. MISSISSIPPI:
VFR/MVFR from the line Natchez-to-Hattiesburg southward to just to
the north of the coastal plains. IFR/LIFR in the coastal plains.
ALABAMA: IFR/LIFR from Dothan to Evergreen. MVFR/LIFR between
Florida and Mississippi. FLORIDA: IFR mostly, with some LIFR,
light rain in Milton, from Cross City northwestward. LIFR at the
Tampa Executive Airport, and in Punta Gorda.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers
the Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough starts near 13N62W in the
SE corner of the area, and it continues to 10N69W in Venezuela, and
to 10N75W in Colombia.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery elsewhere across the area.

Rainshowers are possible across the Caribbean Sea, in areas of
broken low level clouds.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 01/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.24 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Northerly wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb is moving across the
area. E-to-NE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb also is moving
across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona:
VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago:
MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plato: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area for the first 30 hours to 36 hours. A trough
will move across the area after the first 36 hours or so. Expect
SE wind flow after the first 36 hours or so. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow, around a ridge, will
move across the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that NE-to-E wind flow will move across the area during the first
36 hours. A trough will move across Hispaniola at 36 hours.
Expect Northerly wind flow after the first 36 hours or so.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N23W to 22N35W 18N45W, and
16N54W. A slowly-moving cold front passes through 32N36W to
28N50W 26N61W. The front is stationary from 26N61W to 26N70W. A
surface trough continues from 26N70W, across the Bahamas to 25N77W,
to 22N79W in Cuba. A second surface trough is along 30N39W
25N45W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 24N to
27N between 50W and 63W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to
the northwest of the line that passes through 32N35W, 20N48W, to
20N70W.

Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf
of Mexico, the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward, and the Caribbean
Sea.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
is near 35N23W, to 27N40W.

A surface ridge passes through Bermuda to 30N75W, across Florida,
into the Gulf of Mexico near 28N86W, toward the lower Texas coast
of the Gulf of Mexico.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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