[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Cindy, in the Gulf of Mexico, at
22/0000 UTC, is near 28.3N 93.3W, or about 110 NM to the S of
Lake Charles, Louisiana, and about 100 NM to the SE of Galveston,
Texas. Cindy is moving northwestward, 315 degrees at 07 knots.
The maximum sustained wind speeds remain 45 KT with gusts to 55
KT. The minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Please read the NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC,
and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave axis is along 41W from 13N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is very apparent in the Total
Precipitable Water imagery as well as the Tropical Wave
Diagnostics from 700 mb. However, there is little to no signature
of the wave at the surface. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted from 03N-11N between 33W-41W.

Tropical wave axis is along 57W/58W from 15N southward, moving
westward 15 knots. The wave is subtle, only showing up in the
Tropical Wave Diagnostics from 700 mb. There is little to no
signature of the wave at the surface, nor is it apparent in the
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N-08N between 54W-58W.

Tropical wave axis is along 72W/73W from 21N to 10N, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave was the one that spawned
Tropical Storm Bret, but was removed from the analysis. Now that
Bret has devolved back to a tropical wave, the feature has been
reintroduced into the analysis. The wave is very apparent both at
the surface, at 700 mb in the Tropical Wave Diagnostics, and in
the Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate to strong
convection was noted from 14N-16N between 73W-77W. Maximum
surface winds are currently 20 to 30 kt, as observed by an
earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 15N16W to 09N23W. The ITCZ extends from 0923W to
08N38W. A small segment of the ITCZ is also present from 06N44W
to 05N55W. Very little convective activity was noted outside the
tropical waves noted above.


...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cindy is producing scattered to numerous strong
convection within 90-120 nm of the center in the northwestern
quadrant along the southwestern Louisiana and upper Texas coasts.
WSR-88D data indicated very strong convective activity along the
Sabine River east to Lake Charles. Additional strong convection
as noted over the coast of Alabama and the Florida panhandle. The
convection was rotating to the N and NW over. An earlier ASCAT
pass indicated SE winds of 20-25 kt extended up to 360 NM east of
the center and N of 25N. Light W to NW winds prevailed over the SW
Gulf S of 23N and W of 90W with generally fair skies. As the
center of Cindy moves inland near the Texas- Louisiana border on
Thursday, winds and seas will gradually diminish over the northern
half of the Gulf.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough extends along the
southern border of Central America from Guatemala to the border of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua to the coast of Colombia at 10N.
Scattered to numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
occurring from southern Nicaragua to Costa Rica and Panama and
within 60-90 NM of the coast in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

See above for discussion about tropical wave near 72W/73W, which
are the remnants of Tropical Storm Bret. Winds and seas should
diminish to below 20 kt and 8 ft seas, respectively, by Thursday
afternoon.

...HISPANIOLA...

The tropical wave near 72W/73W, the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Bret was resulting in scattered showers and over Hispaniola
today. Numerous high clouds have spread northward over Hispaniola
and Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated moderate convection can
be expected through Thursday over Hispaniola, especially at the
times of diurnal heating. By Friday, chances for precipitation
should diminish as the wave pushes westward away from Hispaniola
and drier air at the mid and upper levels pushes in from the east.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 mb Bermuda/Azores high is centered well N of the discussion
area near 35N49W. The modest pressure gradient south of the high
is producing light 10-20 KT tradewinds across the Atlantic. No
significant areas of convection are occurring away from the
ITCZ/monsoon trough/tropical waves. Little change is expected for
the next couple of days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cobb
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