[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 19/1500 UTC is
near 8.8N 56.8W, or about 285 nm to the ESE of Trinidad, and it
is moving west at 20 knots. Maximum wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 knots. The minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Scattered heavy showers with embedded tstms are mainly west of the
low center from 06N to 14N between 55W and 62W. The disturbance
is expected to move through the Windward Islands and near the
eastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Tuesday. Some
strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves
through the Windward Islands and eastern Venezuela tonight and
Tuesday. Please read the NHC Potential Tropical Cyclone
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC,
and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details.

A 1005 mb low pressure center is north of the Yucatan Peninsula,
near 23.4N88.6W with associated surface trough extending from
29N88W to the low center to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N86W. This
disturbance is generating numerous heavy showers and tstms from
17N to 25N between 82W and 88W, including the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula, the Yucatan channel and western Cuba. Scattered heavy
showers are elsewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico E of 88W.
Gale- force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 15 feet
are several hundred miles east and northeast of the estimated low
center. Gradual development of this system is expected today
through Tuesday while it moves across the southern and central
Gulf of Mexico. There is a high chance for tropical or subtropical
cyclone development during the next two days. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are expected to continue over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and
western Cuba during the next day or two. Please read the latest
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, and the HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
12N28W to 02N29W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable wind shear and CIRA LPW show a
moderate moist environment with patches of dry air N of 06N associated
with Saharan dry air and dust intrusion. There is no convection
associated with the wave at the moment.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
11N39W to 03N39W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable wind shear. However, extensive
intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to its environment limit the
convection to isolated showers within 120 nm either side of its
axis from 04N to 07N. This convection is being supported by upper
level divergence.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
21N64W to 10N65W, moving W at 20-25 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear. However, shallow
moisture and an upper level divergent environment support
scattered showers and tstms E of 68W, including Puerto Rico and
the Mona Passage.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of west Africa near
08N12W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N31W to 05N38W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N42W to 05N50W. Two tropical
waves and a potential tropical cyclone are embedded within the
Monsoon trough/ITCZ. See tropical waves and special features
sections for information about convection. Otherwise, scattered
heavy showers and tstms are off the W coast of Africa from 03N to
10N E of 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated area of low pressure covers the eastern Gulf, which
is generating numerous heavy showers and tstms from 17N to 25N
between 82W and 88W, including the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, the
Yucatan channel and western Cuba. Scattered heavy showers are
elsewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico E of 88W. Gale-force
winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 15 feet are also
associated with this disturbance. Gradual development of this
system is expected today through Tuesday while it moves across the
southern and central Gulf of Mexico, and tropical or subtropical
cyclone development is highly possible. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are expected to continue over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and
western Cuba during the next day or two. See the special features
section and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.
Otherwise, gentle to locally fresh N winds are W of 90W along with
fair weather being supported by dry air subsidence from aloft.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous heavy showers with embedded tstms are in the far NW
Caribbean associated with a broad disturbance centered in the E
Gulf of Mexico. This showers are affecting the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula, the Yucatan channel and western Cuba as well as Belize
adjacent waters. Scattered to isolated showers are N of 13N W of
80W. Gale force winds are also associated with this disturbace due
to a tight pressure gradient between the broad cyclonic
circulation and Atlc broad high pressure. See the special
features section and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.
In the SW Caribbean, scattered heavy showers and tstms are S of
15N between 77W and 81W being supported by the monsoon trough.
Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are in the E Caribbean
associated with a tropical wave with axis currently E of Puerto
Rico. See tropical waves section for further details.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather is across the Island. However a tropical wave moving
across the E Caribbean will start bringing scattered showers and
tstms over the Island starting this afternoon through Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles, the westernmost with the
potential of becoming a tropical storm later today. Please refer
to the Tropical Waves and the special features sections above for
details. Otherwise, broad high pressure covers the entire Atlantic
anchored by a 1033 mb high N of the area. Otherwise, a weak cold
front extends from 30N30W to 29N45W with no convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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