[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 11N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center
is along the wave near 05N. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 10N southward between 20W and 34W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 15N
southward moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
from 10N to 12N between 36W and 39W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. This wave is moving through
an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Broken to overcast
multilayered convective debris clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are between 60W and 68W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/81W from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 13N to 16N between 78W and 81W, from 10N to
11N between 80W and 82W, and within 60 nm of the coast of Central
America between 82W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W to 08N20W and 06N25W. The ITCZ is along 04N29W 04N36W,
and along 06N39W 05N51W. Convective precipitation: scattered
strong from 03N to 10N between 12W and 17W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward, mostly between 40W
and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through south central sections of
Georgia, to 25N85W in the Gulf of Mexico, across the northern part
of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the northern part of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
between 78W in the Atlantic Ocean and 88W in the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge passes from the Atlantic Ocean, across central
sections of Florida, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
near the Mexico coast along 22N.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KMZG and KEMK.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: MVFR in inland/interior sections of the Lower Valley, and
finally in the coastal plains, to Bay City and Jasper, and not the
Houston metropolitan area. LOUISIANA: IFR at the NAS in New
Orleans. MVFR in parts of the extreme SE corner of the state.
MISSISSIPPI: IFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: IFR in Gulf Shores. LIFR
from Evergreen to Dothan. FLORIDA: rainshowers and some thunder,
with isolated areas of LIFR, from the Panama City metropolitan
area westward. MVFR in Perry. light rain has ended for the moment
in the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. LIFR at times in
Punta Gorda.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from Nicaragua to NW Cuba. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 74W
westward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the 30N59W-
to-19N62W-to-13N67W trough, from the Atlantic Ocean into the
Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 60w and
68W.

Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers in Colombia from 05N to
11N between 73W and 77W, in an area of broad surface low pressure.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 15/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR for
visibility. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR.
Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata:
VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will be to
the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows
that anticyclonic wind flow will span the entire area, either with
an anticyclonic circulation center, or with a ridge. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across
the area for the first six hours or so, with an inverted trough. SE
wind flow will move across the area for the rest of the time, with
Hispaniola being on the southern side of a north-to-south oriented
Atlantic Ocean ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 30N59W cyclonic circulation
center, to 19N62W, to 13N67W in the Caribbean Sea. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean
from 28N to 30N between 55W and 58W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere in the Atlantic Oceanfrom 23N northward
between 50W and 70W, and from 28N northward between 70W and 80W.

An upper level trough extends from a 29N27W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 25N36W cyclonic circulation center, to 10N42W. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 35N25W, through 32N30W, to 25N59W, to central sections of
Florida.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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