[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 11N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center
is along the wave near 05N. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 11N southward between 22W and 32W.

An Atlantic Ocean surface trough is along 36W/38W from 15N
southward moving westward 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 08N to 12N between 35W and 42W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. This wave is moving through
an area of upper level W and SW wind flow. Broken to overcast
multilayered convective debris clouds and remaining isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the area from 10N to 20N between 55W
and 66W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/81W from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 11N to 14N between 77W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal border sections of
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N20W and 07N25W. The
ITCZ is along 08N40W 07N43W 07N58W. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 03N to 07N between 10W and 17W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward, mostly
between 40W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through SW Georgia, across the
Florida Big Bend, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface trough passes through SW Georgia into N central Florida,
and to 28N83W in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of the Tampa
metropolitan area. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 79W
in the Atlantic Ocean and 88W in the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge is along 28N85W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico near the Mexico coast along 21N.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: MVFR in Edinburg and Weslaco. LOUISIANA: heavy rain in
parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area. MVFR at the NAS in
New Orleans. FLORIDA: MVFR in Crestview, Destin, and in
Brooksville. Moderate rain at the Tampa Executive Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from Nicaragua to NW Cuba. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 75W
westward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the 31N59W-to-
20N61W Atlantic Ocean trough.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 15/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo:
VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1800
feet. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will be to
the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows
that anticyclonic wind flow will span the entire area, either with
an anticyclonic circulation center, or with a ridge. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across
the area for the first six hours or so, with an inverted trough. SE
wind flow will move across the area for the rest of the time, with
Hispaniola being on the southern side of a north-to-south oriented
Atlantic Ocean ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 31N59W cyclonic circulation
center, to 20N61W. Isolated moderate rainshowers from 23N
northward between 53W and 70W, and from 28N northward between 70W
and 80W.

An upper level trough extends from a 30N27W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 25N35W cyclonic circulation center, to 12N40W. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N29W, to 31N41W 25N55W, to a 1020 mb high pressure
center that is near 28N69W, to central Florida.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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