[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 10N23W
to a 1011 mb low at 06N23W to 00N23W, moving west at 15-20 kt.
CIRA LPW imagery show the wave is in a very moist environment from
the surface to 850 mb, along with favorable wind shear, and upper
level divergence. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 00N-10N between 22W-28W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
14N33W to 09N35W to 04N36W, moving west at 15 kt. CIRA LPW
imagery shows the wave is in a moderate moist environment, with
some patches of dry air. The wave coincides with a diffluent
environment at the middle levels and a col of low pressure in the
upper levels, and is in a region of favorable wind shear.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-10N between 34W-37W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the remainder of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
18N60W to 06N60W, moving west at 20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show the
wave is in a moderate moist environment, with some patches of dry
air. Enhanced satellite imagery confirms the presence of Saharan
dry air N of 17N. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-14N
between 59W-62W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
remainder of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from
17N75W to inland Colombia near 07N75W, moving westward at 10 kt.
CIRA LPW imagery shows shallow moisture with patches of dry air in
the wave environment. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over N Colombia and the SW Caribbean from 08N-13N
between 75W-80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of W Africa at 12N16W
to 06N23W to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N37W to the coast of
South America at 06N54W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is off the
coast of W Africa from 03N-09N between 10W-16W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 07N-09N between 38W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends from S Georgia at 31N to E Texas at
31N producing 5-20 kt E to SE surface winds over the Gulf of
Mexico. Strongest winds are over the W Gulf where the surface
pressure gradient is the strongest. Radar imagery shows scattered
showers over S Florida, the Straits of Florida, and the SE Gulf, S
of 27N and E of 83W. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche
and S Mexico from 21N95W to 18N95W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 90 nm of the trough axis. In the upper levels, an upper
level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 87W. Strong
subsidence is over S Texas and the W Gulf, while upper level
moisture is over the E Gulf and Florida. Expect scattered showers
over the E Gulf and Florida over the next 24 hours. Also expect
more convection over the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean, and another is over the
central Caribbean. Please see the tropical waves section for more
details. Numerous strong convection is inland over S Mexico,
Guatemala, El Salvador, and W Honduras. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean from 11N-13N
between 77W-80W. Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean,
Cuba, and Hispaniola. Of note in the upper levels, upper level
diffluence is over the Far NW Caribbean, and W Cuba, enhancing
showers. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to
move W with showers. Also expect an increase of convection over
the S Caribbean and Central America.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level trough in the SW Atlc extends S to a base over
southern Hispaniola coastal waters. This is supporting lifting of
moist warm air and the development of scattered heavy showers and
tstms over central Haiti and the NW Dominican Republic. This
shower activity is forecast today as the upper trough moves east
to the N of Puerto Rico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are over the Atlc. Please refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for details. Scattered showers are
over the W Atlantic W of 75W to include the Bahamas. A surface
trough over the W Atlantic extends from 29N61W to 24N64W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of the trough axis. A 1022
mb high is over the central Atlantic near 31N44W. Of note in the
upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the W
Atlantic near 32N64W. Upper level diffluence is E of the center
enhancing showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

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