[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of west Africa with axis from
11N15W to 04N15W moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is a low
amplitude wave with a very moist area on SSMI TPW imagery. The 700
mb trough is also S of 10N. The GFS model guidance shows a
tropical wave with axis near 15W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 03N-10N between 13W-20W.

A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis from 12N29W to
05N31W moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is associated with
broad 700 mb troughing. The SSMI TPW imagery shows this wave is
embedded in deep-layer moisture S of 15N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 09N-11N between 27W-31W.

A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis from 12N37W to
04N39W moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is associated with
broad 700 mb troughing. SSMI TPW imagery shows this wave is
encountering dry air to the north of 10N. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the wave axis S of 10N.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis from
13N50W to 05N52W moving westward at 15-20 kt. SSMI TPW imagery
shows this wave is embedded in deep-layer moisture S of 14N. The
700 mb trough is depicted along 53W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 10N-13N between 50W-54W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis from
15N72W to 06N72W moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is
associated with 700 mb troughing. SSMI TPW imagery shows this wave
is encountering dry air to the W of the axis. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the axis over W Venezuela and N Colombia.

A tropical wave is over Central America with axis from E Honduras
at 15N84W to the E Pacific at 06N83W moving westward at 10 kt.
This wave is associated with weak 700 mb troughing. The wave is
also interacting with the Monsoon Trough, which passes over the SW
Caribbean. However, upper-level ridging from the Gulf of Honduras
to the central Caribbean is producing subsidence over this wave
inhibiting deep convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 13N17W
to 08N20W to 07N28W. The ITCZ extends from 06N33W to 07N38W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N41W to 08N51W. The ITCZ
resumes west of a tropical wave near 09N54W and extends to the
coast of South America near 09N61W. Aside from convection
discussed in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N-06N between 33W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends from S Georgia at 32N to central
Texas at 32N producing 10-15 kt SE surface winds over the Gulf of
Mexico. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N96W
to 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
trough axis. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over
the Gulf with axis along 90W. Strong subsidence is over S Texas
and the W Gulf, while upper level moisture is over the E Gulf and
Florida. Expect scattered showers over the E Gulf and Florida over
the next 24 hours. Also expect more convection over the Bay of
Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are passing over the Caribbean and Central
America. Please see the tropical waves section for more details.
Numerous strong convection is inland over S Mexico and Guatemala.
The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower
pressure associated with the Monsoon Trough is generating moderate
to fresh east to east- southeast winds over the Caribbean basin.
Winds are strongest over the Gulf of Honduras and along the
northern coast of Colombia. Upper-level ridging from the Gulf of
Honduras to the central Caribbean is combining with an upper-level
trough passing over the eastern Caribbean from Puerto Rico to
central Venezuela to create a subsident environment over the basin
which is inhibiting deep convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level trough extending southward over Puerto Rico into
the Caribbean is inhibiting convection somewhat. However, colder
air aloft is providing the instability for showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly over the mountains during the afternoon and
early evening Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details. A weak surface trough off the Florida
East Coast from 30N79W to 26N79W is supporting isolated showers
and thunderstorms along the Florida coast west of 78W. This trough
is expected to persist for the next 12 hours. A surface trough is
located over the central Atlantic from 29N59W to 24N59W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the axis. A weakening 1020
mb surface low is centered near 29N38W. No deep convection is
noted. Otherwise, broad high pressure covering the Atlantic from
the Azores to the Carolinas is generating moderate trades north of
the ITCZ to 22N between the Windward Islands and 30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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