[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
144 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave was introduced to this map after analyzing model
diagnostics and Hovmoller diagrams. Its axis extends from 13N19W
to 06N20W. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the wave's
environment mostly related to the presence of the Monsoon Trough
from 09N-12N and east of 20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
13N30W to 06N29W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. This wave
is embedded in deep moisture and inverted 700 mb troughing between
24W and 30W. Some African dust surrounds the wave. Isolated
showers are near the wave's axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
14N43W to 07N44W, moving westward at about 15-20 kt. This wave is
at the leading edge of an increase in low to mid level moisture,
and is also evident in 850 and 700 mb model fields. No deep
convection is currently noted with this wave.

Another tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles. Its axis
extends from 19N62W to 08N62W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave
shows up pretty well in the TPW animation and coincides with a 700
mb inverted trough. The wave has produced a few showers across
the islands.

A tropical wave is drifting westward across the southwest
Caribbean and extends from 18N79W to 09N79W. The wave combined
with the Monsoon Trough is helping to induce clusters of moderate
to strong convection south of 10N and west of 78W, affecting
parts of Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast
of west Africa near 12N16W to 10N19W, then resumes from 09N21W to
09N28W. The ITCZ extends from 08N32W to 09N42W, them resumes west
of a tropical wave at 09N46W to 07N59W. Aside of the convection
described in the section above with the tropical wave near Africa,
isolated showers are observed along the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from 23N92W to 19N92W. Scatterometer
data indicate gentle to moderate winds east of the trough axis
and mainly light winds ahead of it. The proximity of T.D. Three-E
currently located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the
southern portion of the trough south of 20N between 89W-95W.
A diffluent flow aloft between an upper-level trough located over
the western Gulf and an anticyclone situated over the northwest
Caribbean continues to support cloudiness and isolated showers
across the east Gulf east of 90W. Abundant moisture will persist
across the Gulf region today as a moist and humid southerly wind
flow prevails. High pres will build west across Gulf in the wake
of the trough through in the evening hours today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the Tropical Waves section above for details. Latest scatterometer
data provided observations of moderate to fresh trades across
much of the area, with fresh to locally strong winds near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, and also over the
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate southeast winds were noted
across the northwest Caribbean, mainly north 16N and west of 85W.
High pressure located north of the area combined with lower pressures
along the Monsoon Trough over the southwest Caribbean will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the basin today, with
the strongest winds across the south-central Caribbean, southwest
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. The pressure gradient will relax
some during mid week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure
is expected to develop over the southwest Caribbean by mid week,
and shift gradually northwest through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level low spinning over eastern Puerto Rico is producing
a dry mid to upper northerly flow over the island. Limit shower
activity is expected across the island today, with isolated
showers or thunderstorms in association with local effects.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward across the basin. Please
refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface
trough persists east of Florida and extends from 30N76W to
30N79W. Convection has diminished in association with this trough
over the past 24 hours. To the east, a stationary front remains
over the central Atlantic. A pair of weak lows are along this
frontal boundary, one near 28N49W and the other near 29N36W. A
surface trough extends from the westernmost low to 21N56W. No
deep convection is associated to these features. The remainder of
the Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored
by a 1025 mb high pressure located near 31N54W. The high pressure
will move eastward in about 24 hours. The trough in the central
Atlantic will move westward today, and its associated low will
dissipate. The easternmost low is forecast by the computer models
to remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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