[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
726 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
13N28W to 04N29W, moving westward at around 20 kt. This wave is
embedded in deep moisture and inverted 700 mb troughing between
24W and 30W. Some Africant dust surrounds the wave. Isolated
showers are near the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
14N42W to 06N43W, moving westward at about 20 kt. This wave is at
the leading edge of an increase in low to mid level moisture, and
is also evident in 850 and 700 mb model fields. No deep convection
is currently noted with this wave.

Another tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles. This wave was
re-analyzed farther east over the past 24 hours. Its axis extends
from Guadeloupe to the NE coast of Venezuela. The wave shows up
pretty well in the TPW animation and coincides with a 700 mb
inverted trough. The wave has produced only a few showers across
the islands.

Another tropical wave is drifting westward across the SW Caribbean
and extends from 16N78W across eastern Panama into the EPAC. The
wave combined with the Monsoon Trough is helping to induce clusters
of moderate to strong convection south of 11N and west of 78W, and
over parts of Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast
of west Africa near 14N16W to 10N20W to 09N27W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N31W to 08N42W, them resumes west of a tropical wave at
09N45W to 07N58W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are
noted along the west coast of Africa from 04N to 13N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a surface trough is analyzed from 24N92W to
19N93W. Scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate winds east
of the trough axis and mainly light winds ahead of the trough
axis. Upper diffluence between an upper-level trough located over
the western Gulf and anticyclone situated over the NW Caribbean
continues to support convection across much of the Gulf region
and east of the upper trough that extends from SE Louisiana to
near Tampico, Mexico. Satellite imagery and lightning data show
scattered to numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms across
the Gulf east of 92W, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the north Gulf
states from Louisiana to Georgia, including also the central and
north Florida. The trough will continue to drift N-NW through
early Mon accompanied by showers and tstms. Abundant moisture will
persist across the Gulf region on Monday as a moist and humid
southerly wind flow prevails. High pres will build west across
Gulf in the wake of the trough through late Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles. Another
tropical wave is interacting with the eastern Pacific Monsoon
Trough to support convection over portions of the SW Caribbean.
Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.
Latest scatterometer data provided observations of moderate to
fresh trades across much of the area, with fresh to locally
strong winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Gentle to moderate SE winds were noted across the NW
Caribbean, mainly north 18N. High pressure located north of the
area combined with lower pressures along the monsoon trough over
the SW Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across
the basin on Monday, with the strongest winds across the south-
central Caribbean, SW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. The pressure
gradient will relax some during mid week. Looking ahead, a broad
area of low pressure is expected to develop over the SW Caribbean
by mid week, and shift gradually NW through Fri.

...HISPANIOLA...

A weak upper-level low spinning over Puerto Rico is producing a
dry mid to upper northerly flow over Hispaniola. Limit shower
activity is expected across the island on Monday, with isolated
showers or thunderstorms in association with the local effects.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details. A surface trough persists east of
Florida and extends from 31N74W to 28N80W. Convection has
diminished in association with this trough over the past 24 hours.
A stationary front remains over the central Atlantic. A pair of
weak lows are along the frontal boundary, one near 30N35W and the
other near 28N49W. A surface trough extends from the westernmost
low to 21N54W. No deep convection is associated with the entire
system. Visible satellite imagery showed very well the two low
centers. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a
ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure located near 32N56W.
The high pressure will move eastward to a position near 32N47W in
about 24 hours. The trough will move westward on Monday, and the
associated low will disipate. The easternmost low is forecast by
the computer model to remain nearly stationary over the next 24
hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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