[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave exited the Africa coast
yesterday and has an axis that currently extends from 13N19W to
04N19W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is embedded in a
deep moisture surge and inverted 700 mb troughing. Numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection are from 03N to 12N
west of 24W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
14N34W to 04N35W, moving westward at about 20 kt. This wave is
low amplitude and is marked by a enhancement in low to mid level
moisture south of 12N, and is also evident in 850 and 700 mb model
fields. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the
wave axis, south of 12N.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Windward
Islands, and has an axis that extends from 16N59W to 06N61W,
moving westward at around 20 kt. This wave is associated with a
poleward surge in moisture, and a notable inverted 700 mb trough
along about 55W-60W. Isolated moderate convection is within 150
nm of either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave that has been recently identified over the western
Caribbean has been tracked using infrared satellite imagery loops
from the past several days as it triggered convection over South
America. This wave has an axis that extends from 16N77W to 05N77W,
moving west at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
south of 12N within 90 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends the Atlantic Ocean near 10N15W to
07N20W to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N36W to 08N44W, then
resumes west of a surface trough near 08N46W to 08N54W. Aside from
convection discussed in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate convection is within about 120 nm of either side of the
ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The remnants of a stationary front, now a surface trough, extends
from 27N82W to 24N88W. This trough is interacting with a very
moist airmass and an upper trough to the west to support areas of
showers with scattered thunderstorms south of 28N and east of 89W.
Moderate southerly winds are south of the trough axis. Mainly
moderate easterly winds cover the remainder of the Gulf. A
weakening thermal trough extends from about 23N91W to 18N92W and
supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 60 nm
of the trough axis north of 22N. Over the next 24 hours the
eastern Gulf trough will move northwest and will accompany an
increase of moisture to the north central and northeast Gulf
resulting in showers and thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 22N85W to 17N87W supporting
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms north of 17N west of
84W. Another surface trough extends from 14N83W to 10N83W,
supporting scattered moderate convection from 10N to 14N west of
80W. A tropical wave is interacting with the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough to support convection over other portions of the SW
Caribbean. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more
details. A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the islands as
well as the E Caribbean, east of 63W. The remainder of the
Caribbean is void of convection. Moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds cover the Caribbean, except fresh to strong east
winds over the south-central Caribbean. Over the next 24 hours
the NW Caribbean trough will move into the Gulf of Mexico. Little
change is expected over the SW Caribbean. Showers will increase
over the eastern Caribbean associated with the tropical wave.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather with dry air and subsidence aloft will continue over
the island through tonight. An upper low to east of the area,
responsible for the dry air, will cross the island Sunday, with
the more unstable portion of the low reaching the area Sunday
afternoon. This will cause an increase in showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details. A dissipating stationary front extends
from 31N79W to 28N80W, supporting scattered moderate convection
and thunderstorms within 60 nm north, and 150 nm south of the
frontal boundary. A 1025 mb high is centered near 29N57W, covering
the remainder of the southwest north Atlantic with east to
southeast trade winds. A frontal system is over the central
Atlantic with a stationary front that enters the area of
discussion near 31N35W and extends to a 1020 mb low near 28N44W. A
cold front extends from the low to 25N50W to 27N55W. No deep
convection is noted. Fresh to strong northeast winds are north of
the frontal boundaries. A dissipating 1023 mb high is centered
near 27N36W. Over the next 24 hours the stationary front east of
Florida will transition to a surface trough and drift northward
with convection. The frontal system will persist over the central
Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
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