[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa, with axis
extending from 11N15W to 04N15W. This wave is moving west at 10-15
kt. Abundant moisture prevails in this wave's environment as noted
in TPW imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails
along the southern portion of the wave south of 08N between 10W-
22W.

A tropical wave extends from 12N28W to 05N31W, moving west at
about 5-10 kt. African dust surrounds the wave inhibiting deep
convection at this time.

A tropical wave extends from 14N53W to 07N53W, moving west at 10
kt. Convection increases where the wave meets the ITCZ mainly
south of 09N. IR satellite imagery reveals an area of moderate
convection from 04N-09N between 48W-53W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 10N18W to 08N29W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N32W to 08N52W then resumes west of a
tropical wave near 08N54W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection
can be found within 100 nm on either side of these boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weather conditions remain very humid and unstable across the
southeast Gulf affecting portions of south Florida, the Florida
Keys, Florida Straits, and also western Cuba supported by a
diffluent flow aloft. A surface trough extends across the Yucatan
Channel and 24N83W to 18N89W. Scattered showers are observed
along and in the vicinity of the trough. Fair weather prevails
across the remainder of the area as a surface ridge extends from
the west Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
easterly winds across the basin. Expect for the moisture over the
southeast Gulf to lift northward over the Florida Peninsula,
keeping the likelihood of rain high on Saturday. Locally heavy
rain will be possible. The surface trough will dissipate during
the next 24-48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A diffluent flow aloft is keeping western Cuba under a wet
weather pattern. These conditions are forecast to gradually
improve during the upcoming weekend as ridge begins to develop
across the region. Isolated showers are observed across the
Windward Islands and adjacent waters south of 14N and east of
64W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by the broad surface
high pressure system centered over the west Atlantic. The most
recent scatterometer data depicts mainly moderate trade winds
over the eastern and central Caribbean, while winds are light
south of 13N and west of 77W. Moderate to locally fresh trades
are expected across the basin through the upcoming weekend except
for fresh to strong trades across the south-central portions of
the Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras starting Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting
will combine with available moisture in the region to produce
some cloudiness with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
particularly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details. A stationary front extends from 31N72W
to 28N80W. Scattered showers prevail near the front mainly west of
75W affecting the northern Bahamas. A 1024 mb surface high is
centered near 29N57W. To the east, a cold front extends from
31N34W to 30N54W. Scattered showers are confined to the area north
of 29N between 29W-37W. Expect for the frontal boundary over the
west Atlantic to weaken during the next 24 hours and move north.
Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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